“Thanks To Pakistan”, India Beats China As Asia’s Strongest Air Force; Is IAF Really Ahead Of PLAAF? Op-Ed

Sumit Ahlawat

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A new ranking by the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) has surprised everyone by ranking India above China in terms of air power.

While it is heartening to see the Indian Air Force ranked above China, New Delhi must not get carried away. This is even more important given that India and China are not only neighbours, but they also share an over 4,000 km-long contested border.

India and China fought a full-fledged war in 1962 and had serious border confrontations in Nathu La, Sikkim (1967), Doklam (2017), and in Galwan (2020). A future armed conflict with China can not be ruled out despite recent Modi-Xi bonhomie.

India also needs to be prepared to counter Chinese aerial power on its Western front with Pakistan, as happened during Operation Sindoor, when the Indian Air Force (IAF) not only faced Chinese aircraft, such as the J-10CE and JF-17 Thunder, and Chinese missiles like the PL-15, but also the Chinese air battle doctrine.

Any misjudgement, wrong assessment, or overconfidence can have deadly consequences.

For instance, as per a Reuters report, the reason the IAF lost a few aircraft during the brief war with Pakistan in May might have been an intelligence failure in assessing the real capabilities of the Chinese long-range air-to-air missile, the PL-15.

According to the report, the IAF Rafale pilots underestimated the range of the Chinese-made PL-15 missile fired by the J-10.

“Central to its downing was an Indian intelligence failure concerning the range of the China-made PL-15 missile fired by the J-10 fighter rather than the performance of the Rafale,” it said.

“The faulty intelligence gave the Rafale pilots a false sense of confidence that they were out of Pakistani firing distance, which they believed was only around 150 kilometers…The PL-15 that hit the Rafale was fired from around 200 kilometers away.”

Gen Z Is Taking to the Barricades

Christian Caryl

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Remember the kids of Generation Z? You know—that notorious cohort of entitled, lazy, and apathetic people that Boomers so love to mock?

Over the past two years, members of Gen Z across Asia, Africa, and Latin America have been taking to the streets, covertly organizing revolutions and dethroning entrenched rulers. Quite a few of those involved in the uprisings have paid with their lives—another indicator that these events are worth taking seriously. On Oct. 14, Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina was ousted after weeks of protests and replaced by a military government, underlining the new power of the young and sometimes violent demonstrators who have been demanding change.

Some observers might dismiss this new wave of activism as irrelevant to the future of established democracies. But such complacency might be ill-advised. If this new revolutionary movement has demonstrated anything, it’s that no one should underestimate its infectiousness.

In 2022 and 2024, respectively, youth-led uprisings toppled the leaders of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, two countries with a combined population of around 200 million. This year has seen similar upheavals in Indonesia (284 million), the Philippines (116 million), Kenya (56 million), Morocco (38 million), Nepal (30 million), Madagascar (32 million), and Peru (34 million). That adds up to some 790 million people—a not inconsiderable chunk of the global population and enough to make this the largest wave of revolt in human history. Madagascar is not the only country where leaders have fallen; Nepal and Peru have also discarded their rulers. Meanwhile, Ecuador, recently inspired by the unrest in neighboring Peru, is still working through its own chaotic version of Gen Z turmoil.

But are we really justified in lumping all of these cases together? An intelligent observer might concede that labels like “Gen Z” often end up obscuring more than they reveal. After all, we live in an age where political polarization, driven at least in part by the ubiquity of social media, has opened up fault lines even among people of the same age. In the United States, Western Europe, and South Korea, sociologists have discovered that coeval men and women are increasingly diverging in their political preferences—so one should proceed with caution when lumping enormously diverse groups of people into a single political category.

The Great Reckoning

Kaiser Kuo

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The world feels unsettled, as if history itself were changing tempo. The familiar landmarks of the modern age are blurring, slipping away, and the stories we once told ourselves about progress and power no longer map cleanly onto the terrain before us. What we are living through seems, with each new day, less like a passing rearrangement of power, less like a momentary realignment of nations. We sense something deeper and more enduring: a transformation whose outlines we are only beginning to discern. History no longer feels like something unfolding behind us but something rushing toward us, urgent and impossible to ignore.

The economic historian Adam Tooze, reflecting on his recent, intense engagement with China, put it to me in July with characteristic directness: “China isn’t just an analytical problem,” he said. It is “the master key to understanding modernity.” Tooze called China “the biggest laboratory of organized modernizations there has ever been or ever will be at this level [of] organization.” It is a place where the industrial histories of the West now read like prefaces to something larger.

His observation cuts to the heart of what makes this moment so difficult to process. We have witnessed not merely the rise of another great power, but a fundamental challenge to assumptions long embedded in Western thought—about development, political systems, and civilizational achievement itself. We simply haven’t yet found the intellectual courage to face it.

This reckoning touches all of humanity, but it falls especially hard on the developed world and hardest on the United States, where assumptions about exceptionalism and hierarchy are most exposed and most fiercely denied. The familiar framing of China as “rising” or “catching up” no longer holds. China is now shaping the trajectory of development, setting the pace economically, technologically, and institutionally. For Americans especially, the deeper psychic shock lies in the recognition that modernity is no longer something they authored and others merely inherit. That story has outlived its usefulness.

Why the US needs China's rare earths

Ayeshea Perera

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Neodymium is used to make the powerful magnets used in loudspeakers and computer hard drives

The trade war between China and the US has reignited after a truce lasting months - this time over rare earths.

China has a chokehold on the minerals which are used in the making of electric cars, electronics and military weapons. It has tightened its grip over rare earth exports in recent months, and now requires companies in China to get government approval before shipping the minerals abroad.

These curbs have dealt a major blow to the US, whose industries are heavily dependent on imports of the precious metal.

Analysts say China is using its dominance as a key bargaining chip in trade talks with Washington.

But why exactly are rare earths so important and how could they shake up the trade war?

What are rare earths and what are they used for?

Rare earths are a group of 17 chemically similar elements that are crucial to the manufacture of many high-tech products.

Most are abundant in nature, but they are known as rare because it is very unusual to find them in a pure form, and they are very hazardous to extract.

Although you may not be familiar with the names of these rare earths - like neodymium, yttrium and europium - you will be very familiar with the products that they are used in.

For instance, neodymium is used to make the powerful magnets used in loudspeakers, computer hard drives, EV motors and jet engines that enable them to be smaller and more efficient.

China, the United States, and a Critical Chokepoint on Minerals

Michael Froman

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China is willing and able to exploit this strategic vulnerability. It has already proven its willingness to use export controls as a tool of economic coercion. Some fifteen years ago, China curtailed rare earths—a subset of critical minerals—to Japan over a dispute in the East China Sea. More recently, China has restricted its exports of critical minerals in response to the United States’ tariffs and export controls.

While China maintains that it's not a ban, China announced new measures last week that build upon its earlier semiconductor-focused restrictions, extending to products made outside China that have as little as 0.1 percent of Chinese rare earths in them or use mining, separation, or magnet-making technology developed by Chinese firms. That is similar to the United States’ Foreign Direct Product Rule. Moreover, China has insisted that applicants for an export license submit schematics for products that use Chinese-produced minerals, a powerful tool for accessing proprietary intellectual property.

China did not become the dominant player in critical minerals overnight; it was a long march to get there. During his famous 1992 Southern Tour, while visiting Inner Mongolia’s Baotou rare-earth basin, Deng Xiaoping said, “The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths.” Rare earths are actually not rare, and certainly not present in China alone, but ever since Deng noted the importance of such minerals, China has developed a dominant position through decades of concerted industrial policy. For years, the Chinese government invested heavily to support firms at every step of the rare earth refining and production value chain, bolstering its domestic mining, refining, production, and recycling facilities, as well as expanding its network of foreign mines around the world.

Today, the biggest chokepoints in the supply chain for critical minerals are refining and processing (both in terms of capacity and intellectual property), not mining. China controls up to 90 percent of the world’s processing capacity, including more than 99 percent for three kinds of rare earths necessary for heat-resistant magnets. This has been achieved in part by subsidizing, producing, and engaging in pricing practices that made it economically unviable for competitors in the United States and other countries. Chinese firms also innovated in their own right—that’s why they possess the industry’s most valuable intellectual property and capacity to boot. And they also took advantage of the fact that the United States and other developed countries didn’t want to expand domestic mining and refining activity as a result of environmental consequences and other factors.

Cronyism and Failed Promotions: Xi’s PLA Purge

K. Tristan Tang

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Executive Summary:The Ministry of National Defense announced on October 17 that nine generals—including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong and Political Work Department Director Miao Hua—had been expelled from the Party and the military.

The purge centers on personnel mismanagement and alleged job-related crimes, highlighting systemic corruption within the PLA’s political work and promotion system.

Many of the officers shared prior service ties in the Eastern Theater Command area and the former 31st Group Army, forming an improper network around He and Miao.

The campaign marks Xi Jinping’s most visible effort yet to tighten control over the PLA’s personnel system, raising the question of whom Xi can still trust within his own military ranks.

On October 17, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of National Defense announced the results of investigations into nine generals. All were expelled from both the Communist Party and the military. The list includes vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) He Weidong (何卫东), director of the CMC Political Work Department Miao Hua (苗华), executive deputy director of the CMC Political Work Department He Hongjun (何宏军), executive deputy director of the CMC Joint Operations Command Center Wang Xiubin (王秀斌), commander of the Eastern Theater Command Lin Xiangyang (林向阳), former political commissar of the Army Qin Shutong (秦树桐), former political commissar of the Navy Yuan Huazhi (袁华智), former commander of the Rocket Force Wang Houbin (王厚斌), and former commander of the People’s Armed Police Wang Chunning (王春宁) (Xinhua, October 17).

This is not the first time that the authorities have announced investigations or disciplinary actions against these generals. For example, in June this year, the standing committee of the National People’s Congress announced the removal of Miao Hua from his position as a member of the CMC (Xinhua, June 27). But the connection between the purges has never previously been explained. Today’s announcement in effect confirms that He Weidong, Miao Hua, and others faced purges due to alleged factionalism and misconduct in personnel appointments.

Taiwan's return to China a vital part of post-World War II order

CHINA DAILY

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UN resolution requires following one-China principle

Taiwan's restoration to China was the outcome of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1931-45) and the World Anti-Fascist War. Following their summit in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec 1, 1943, China, the United States and the United Kingdom issued the Cairo Declaration, which unequivocally stated that the three Allied powers will ensure all the Chinese territories captured and occupied by Japan, including Northeast China, Taiwan and Penghu Islands, are restored to China. As a pivotal document in international law, the Cairo Declaration laid the groundwork for the establishment of the postwar world order, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

On July 26, 1945, the same three countries issued the Potsdam Proclamation, stipulating the terms of Japan's surrender. Article 8 of the proclamation says "the terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out and Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku and such minor islands as we determine".

As an instrument of Japan's surrender, the Potsdam Proclamation has legally binding force in international law. On Aug 14,1945, Japan officially accepted the Potsdam Proclamation. The next month, during the formal Japanese surrender ceremony aboard USS Missouri, the Japanese government's representative signed the Instrument of Surrender while committing to carry out the provisions of the Potsdam Proclamation "in good faith".

Thus a legally interlocking chain was formed by the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and the Japanese Instrument of Surrender, affirming that Japan must restore all Chinese territories including Taiwan to China. On Oct 25, 1945, the ceremony to accept Japan's surrender in the Taiwan province of the China war theater was held in Taipei, where Ando Rikichi, the Japanese government head on the island, signed the formal surrender document.

The Chinese government announced that Taiwan and the Penghu Islands had been restored to China, and it was resuming the exercise of sovereignty over Taiwan. From that point on, China recovered Taiwan de jure and de facto. And its subsequent administration and governance have been widely accepted and recognized by the international community, constituting an integral part of the international order based on international law.

The First 48 Hours of a War With China ‘Could Be Ugly’

Andrew Latham

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MEDITERRANEAN SEA (Feb. 21, 2017) The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) transits the Mediterranean Sea in support of Operation Inherent Resolve. The George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group is conducting naval operations in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations in support of U.S. national security interests. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Daniel Gaither/Released)

Key Points and Summary – In a war with China, the U.S. must prepare to absorb a massive opening punch of over a thousand missiles and drones aimed at paralyzing its forces.

-The key to victory is not preventing this first strike but building a resilient force that can “fight hurt.”

-This requires a radical shift to strategies like Agile Combat Employment, which disperses aircraft across many smaller bases, and developing resilient command networks.

-It also demands “magazine depth”—surging production of key munitions and operationalizing at-sea reloading—and fully integrating allied firepower.

-The goal is to survive the opening hours and win the longer campaign.

‘Disperse or Die’: The Air Force’s Survival Plan for a War With China

America’s next war will probably start with a number, not a speech.

Imagine a first day with perhaps a thousand inbound missiles and drones: craters on airbases, fuel farms in flames, runways closed, command posts jammed, warships bracketed, aircraft trapped on the ground.

That’s the tempo Beijing wants to impose, compressing the timeline until decision-making stumbles and recovery falters.

The United States can’t wish that away.

Are China’s Spy Satellites A Lifeline For Russia’s Struggling Space Intelligence?

Ray Furlong

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Earlier this month, air defense units in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv were unusually busy during an overnight bombardment by Russian missiles and drones. Some 700 kilometers above them, Chinese spy satellites were silently passing by, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

The Kremlin has denied that China was providing it with battlefield information, saying it has its own satellites. But experts suggest that, in fact, Russia has a dire need for Chinese assistance.

“Russia’s infrastructure is pretty old and creaky,” said Clayton Swope, who spent 14 years in the CIA, mostly in its Directorate of Science and Technology.

“It really seems like a no-brainer that if China is willing to offer either something from a company or from its own government capabilities, Russia will take advantage of that,” Swope, now at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told RFE/RL.

China’s Spy-Sat Capabilities

Given the classified nature of such information, it’s hard to say exactly how many spy satellites any nation has.

A report published by the US Defense Intelligence Agency in 2022, Challenges to Security in Space, estimated that China had 262 satellites for ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) compared to Russia’s 32.

“Russia actually started buying commercial satellite imagery on the free commercial market from April 2022,” Juliana Suess, from the German Institute of International and Security Affairs (SWP), told RFE/RL.

“That sort of shows us that Russia realized that actually this is something that they would need. And it also shows that their own sovereign capabilities were simply not enough to plug that gap.”

There is also a quality gap, largely caused by Russia’s ageing satellite fleet. Some of it dates from Soviet times but there have also been more recent launches, including since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, over 2022-24.

What’s the U.S. Endgame in Venezuela?

Geoff Ramsey

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In a way, the prize honors not only Machado, but also the millions of Venezuelans eager for change who mobilized around her ahead of the 2024 presidential campaign. Her leadership contributed to the opposition’s overwhelming victory in that election, according to verified independent counts—and galvanized resistance when Maduro blatantly stole it.

The prospects for a peaceful democratic transition in Venezuela remain unclear. Machado has close ties to several members of the Trump administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, he has sent mixed signals on his policy toward Caracas.

The White House initially seemed to favor a more transactional approach to dealing with Maduro. In recent months, however, its actions have become more belligerent. The United States in September sent a large naval deployment to the Caribbean, which it claims is cracking down on the flow of cocaine, fentanyl and other drugs transiting Venezuela. U.S. aircraft have, to date, bombed at least five civilian boats alleged to be carrying drugs. Democrats in Congress have raised concerns about the unauthorized attacks, which have killed at least 27 people.

Expectations that the United States will pursue a more militaristic path in Venezuela are high.

In the wake of the U.S. naval buildup, Machado promised her followers that Maduro’s days in power are numbered, saying in online videos that the regime “is over.” Many Venezuelans, understandably frustrated with years of authoritarian repression and economic chaos, have taken to speculating when, not if, Trump will send the Marines into their country.

Trump on Wednesday confirmed reports that he has already instructed the CIA to carry out covert operations inside Venezuela. That same day, in an interview with CNN, Machado appealed to the United States for help in fighting what she called Maduro’s “war.”

When asked if the White House is considering striking targets inside Venezuelan territory, Trump has refused to rule it out, saying only, “Well, you’re going to find out.” This week, he dropped more hints about such a move. “We are certainly looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday.

Israel under fire in massive global cyber offensive, Microsoft report warns

Raphael Kahan

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Microsoft’s data points to an even starker picture in the Middle East and Africa, where Israel experienced 603 cyberattacks, roughly 20.4% of all incidents in the region, a rate far higher than any other country. The report underscores what it describes as an “exceptionally high” threat level against Israeli government institutions, as well as the public and private sectors. Government bodies remained among the most targeted, representing 17% of attacks during the period.

The report identifies Iran as one of Israel’s leading cyber adversaries, stating that about 64% of all Iranian state-linked cyber activity worldwide was directed against Israeli targets. According to Microsoft’s threat intelligence team, Tehran’s operations aim to gather intelligence on Israel, recruit individuals for hostile activity, disrupt vital services, retaliate without direct military confrontation and project technological power.

Microsoft notes that Iran’s cyber efforts have intensified alongside regional tensions and that its tactics increasingly blend espionage, influence operations and attempts to damage public trust. The report describes the campaigns as part of an ongoing cyber war between the two nations that parallels their wider strategic rivalry.

Beyond Iran, the company says Russia has expanded its cyber operations, with actors linked to Moscow targeting small businesses in countries that support Ukraine. These attacks often serve as entry points into larger corporations - a method that could also threaten Israeli companies with international operations or supply-chain ties.

Wartime surge in cyberattacks

While Microsoft’s global findings are based on data through June 2025, Israeli security and cyber officials report an unprecedented escalation in hostile cyber activity since the outbreak of the war against Hamas in October 2023.

The National Cyber Directorate reported a 24% increase in reports of cyber incidents in 2024, totaling roughly 17,000 cases. A separate report from the Shin Bet security agency found that the number of cyberattacks against Israel rose fivefold since the war began, compared with previous years. Private cybersecurity firms have documented even sharper spikes, some as high as 700%, in attempted attacks on Israeli targets.

The Ceasefire in Gaza: Views on Security, Palestinian Governance, and Regional Dynamics

Neomi Neumann, Ghaith al-Omari, Ehud Yaari, Dana Stroul, Soner Cagaptay, James Jeffrey

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A compilation of Washington Institute insights on the profoundly complex tasks ahead—from preventing a Hamas resurgence to promoting Palestinian political reform—and the states and mechanisms likely to carry them out.

Hamas, the Clans, and the Struggle for Control

Neomi Neumann

For Hamas, the ceasefire with Israel carries many risks, but it also opens a window of opportunity to reshape the reality on the ground in Gaza. From the moment it took effect on Friday, October 10,the group began redeploying its security apparatus, sending armed operatives back into the streets, and conducting a violent purge against its opponents, with a focus on Gaza clans suspected of collaborating with Israel during the war. Reports suggest that Hamas has already executed dozens of Gazans, and the group is circulating videos of public executions in order to reassert its dominance and instill fear in the population.

Clashes in the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood of Gaza City, where a Hamas force stormed a residential building held by the Dughmush clan, highlight the emerging power struggle. The anti-Hamas factions include about twelve clans with fewer than 1,500 armed fighters, compared to Hamas’s 15,000–20,000 armed operatives. While this gap reduces the likelihood of full-scale civil war, it increases the risk for assassinations that allow Hamas to consolidate its grip over the population. Of the clans, the largest and most established is Abu Shabab, whose members are concentrated in southeast Gaza near the Kerem Shalom crossing with Israel.

At present, the anti-Hamas clans lack the capability to withstand a direct offensive without external support, thus requiring Israel to act strategically to prevent a scenario of widespread violent retribution. Any future agreement should therefore include an explicit clause guaranteeing the security of the clans and potentially seek to gradually integrate their militias into Israel-controlled areas, with the longer-term goal of placing them under the Palestinian Authority. Such a move could help stabilize the territory, expand the operational space for non-Hamas actors, and thus prevent Hamas from reasserting full control over Gaza.

Principles for Supporting Palestinian Political Reform

Ghaith al-Omari

AUSA NEWS: Israel's Iron Beam On Track for Deployment This Year

Josh Luckenbaugh

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Iron Beam high-energy laser weapon is on track to be deployed by the Israel Defense Forces this year following the use of a prototype version in combat operations, officials from manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defense Systems said Oct. 13.

The system — a 100-kilowatt high-energy laser weapon — in recent months “was heavily tested against dozens of [interceptors] in real scenarios and was accepted by” the Israeli air force, Rafael CEO Yoav Turgeman said in an interview at the Association of the United States Army’s annual conference in Washington, D.C.

With Iron Beam certified for production, “it can be fielded by the end of 2025 according to the initial plan” and be integrated with Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense architecture that features kinetic interceptors, said Daniel Tsemach, Rafael’s international media manager.

An Iron Beam prototype has already seen action in Israel intercepting “many dozens of targets in a real environment, in real battle — so, it’s combat-proven” — and the final version of the system incorporates lessons learned from that prototype fielding, Turgeman said.

Some of the lessons include increasing maintainability and making it easier for warfighters to operate, Turgeman said.

Iron Beam will be operated by “very young soldiers that are not highly skilled … so the system has to be simplified in a way that it will be easy to be used and easy to be maintained,” he said.

Additionally, the artificial intelligence that will enhance the system’s performance has also become more sophisticated over time, he added.

As opposed to “hard kill” interceptors that create debris when they hit their target and can cause collateral damage, with Iron Beam “there is no interceptor debris,” and by using AI “we can decide where to intercept and how to intercept the target to minimize the collateral damage,” he said.

The Inside Story of the Gaza Deal

Amit Segal

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If Israelis had heard how the president of the United States spoke about the hostages, it’s doubtful that he would have received such thunderous cheers at Hostages Square last Saturday night. To say they were a secondary concern for him would be an understatement—and even that understates it. President Donald Trump favored eliminating Hamas the American way, and 20 living hostages (he was always confused about their number and minimized it) seemed to him a marginal matter, collateral damage.

Only belatedly did he perceive how strategic the issue was for the Israelis, and therefore for their government as well. In one of the discussions before the second phase of the Israeli army’s offensive on Gaza City began in mid-2025, Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about the scar that would remain in Israeli society if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conquered Gaza City at the cost of the hostages’ lives. Allow me to guess that he never really believed that moment would come.

Indeed, in recent months, the assessment by Netanyahu and his minister of strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, was that an operation to conquer Gaza City, if it happened, most certainly would not reach completion. Here is the inside story.

Japan’s Likely New Prime Minister Could Unnerve the Region

Derek Grossman

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Japan appears poised to elect its first female prime minister in the coming days – truly a historic achievement. However, the brand of foreign policy espoused by Sanae Takaichi may create heartburn across much, if not most, of Northeast Asia. Takaichi – a staunch conservative who fashions herself as Japan’s Margaret Thatcher – now leads the Liberal Democratic Party. Although she adopted a more pragmatist position on foreign policy during the campaign, Takaichi’s nationalist streak could complicate relations with Tokyo’s neighbors, including China, North Korea, South Korea, and Russia. Indeed, Taiwan may be the only full-throated proponent of her policies. These shifting geopolitical dynamics could create new challenges for Japan and its security ally, the U.S., that they will have to navigate together.

Since it became clear that Takaichi would probably serve as Japan’s next prime minister, China, on the one hand, has welcomed the announcement, while on the other expressed concerns about her motives. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for example, hardly exuded confidence in Takaichi, noting “we hope that Japan will abide by the principles and consensus set out in the four political documents between China and Japan, honor its political commitments on major issues such as history and the Taiwan question, follow a positive and rational policy toward China, and put into practice the positioning of comprehensively advancing the strategic relationship of mutual benefit.”

During the 80th anniversary celebration of “Victory Day” to end World War II, which was held in Beijing early last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked that China’s participation in the “resistance war against Japanese aggression” represented “a significant part of the World Anti-Fascist War.” I happened to attend the 12th annual Xiangshan Forum – a Track 1.5 political and security dialogue – in Beijing the following week, and Chinese officials and experts were still basking in the afterglow of this event, headlined by Xi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who were standing and looking strong together. The anti-Japanese flavor of the event was also palpable, suggesting that Takaichi’s nationalist policies would be highly unwelcome in Beijing.

Military drones will upend the worldThe age of hyper-power is here

James Kingston

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Political power arises from the barrel of a gun. Such, at any rate, is Mao Zedong’s most famous dictum. Accomplished poet, keen historian, and a master strategist, he was in this instance only half-right — for political power arises not only from the barrel of the gun, but from the capacity to make that gun, and to motivate those who would hold it. As a Marxist, he would have appreciated an additional observation: a gun is not only a gun. It is also a tool, a lens through which to observe the economy, society, and political implications of a moment in history. For those who care to look, today’s weapons are pointing to the future.

On the killing fields of Ukraine, an estimated 70% of casualties are now caused by drones. Tactics, techniques, and equipment are evolving at breakneck speed. At high and low altitude, cameras mounted on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) provide constant surveillance, channelling data to human operators and to other drones. In battle, and in the slow attritional grind of the stable front lines, UAVs are used to hunt and bomb the enemy — pursuing individual soldiers and recording footage of their final moments. Close-range combat is disappearing, and artillery is on the way out, too.

Laden with explosives, kamikaze drones are increasingly used in place of long-distance barrages. Drones, meanwhile, are begetting drones; “mothership” UAVs can now be used to launch drone “swarms”. Jet-powered drones have been developed to bomb cities and airbases at long range. Used at sea, drones have devastated the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet; used on land, fighting drones have attacked villages, and act in logistical complement to ground forces. In this highly digital war, the majority of combat is carried out neither through the lens of a gunsight, nor the point of a bayonet, but instead via the videogame-like visual streams of a drone operator’s first-person-view goggles

The greatest innovation of the Russo-Ukrainian war may yet be a battlefield devoid of warriors. Drone power has transformed army tactics, hampering troop concentrations and creating largely stable front lines. Yet drones and drone operators are also vulnerable. UAVs are susceptible to jamming and the vagaries of changing weather; close to the front, their pilots are open to attack. Faced with this reality, militaries are now investing in autonomous weapons — drones able to select, pursue, and attack targets independent of human control.

Ukraine Braces for New Talks Without the Leverage of New Missiles

Constant Méheut

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For days, he hammered one message — that Kyiv needed U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles to strike deep inside Russia. Then, he nudged President Trump toward selling the weapons in back-to-back calls last weekend. Finally, before his arrival, he sent top aides to Washington this week to meet with the missile’s manufacturer.

But when Mr. Zelensky landed in Washington, the landscape had changed. Mr. Trump had taken a phone call from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who appeared to steer him away from selling the weapons and toward reviving peace talks with an in-person meeting.

As Mr. Zelensky sat in front of Mr. Trump on Friday, the American leader’s shift was apparent. “Hopefully, we’ll be able to get the war over without thinking about Tomahawks,” Mr. Trump told him. Mr. Putin, he added, “wants to make a deal.”

“It’s a déjà vu,” Oleksandr Merezhko, the chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian Parliament, said in an interview after Friday’s meeting. “Mr. Trump fell again for Putin’s old trick.”

The sequence of events was all too familiar to Ukrainians. For months, they have watched efforts to rally the mercurial American president to their side being repeatedly undercut by Russia dangling the promise of more peace talks.

Where the U.S. Is Building Up Military Force in the Caribbean

Riley Mellen, Eric Schmitt, Christoph Koettl, Samuel Granados and Junho Lee

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Since late August, the U.S. military has carried out a steady and significant buildup of forces in the Caribbean, with about 10,000 troops at sea and on shore.

It is the largest deployment of U.S. forces in the region in decades and intended to bolster what the Trump administration says is a counterdrug and counterterrorism mission.

The United States has also carried out several lethal strikes on boats that the administration said were carrying narcotics. President Trump and other officials have posted videos of the strikes on social media.

Much of the military buildup is visible in commercial and scientific satellite images and in photographs shared on social media and by residents of the region. Some of the military flights can be seen on publicly available flight-tracking websites. The military has also posted details about U.S. activities in the Caribbean.

But officials have privately made clear that the main goal of the troop increase — which Mr. Trump said this week could also include covert C.I.A. operations — is to drive Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, from power.

About half of the U.S. force is aboard eight Navy warships, including about 2,200 Marines equipped with fighter jets. The other, slightly larger half of the force is mostly at former U.S. bases, now civilian airports, in Puerto Rico, and includes Marine Corps F-35 fighter jets, Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drones and a variety of other surveillance planes and support personnel.

Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Starting to Show Cracks

Georgia Gilholy

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Key Points and Summary – Russia’s offensive in Ukraine is losing momentum, with new UK intelligence showing territorial gains in September were the slowest of the year.

-This slowdown comes at a staggering cost, as a leaked Russian document suggests over 281,000 casualties in 2025 alone.

-With monthly losses now exceeding the 31,000 new recruits Russia can sign up, the Kremlin is bleeding manpower for minimal progress.

-A grim wounded-to-killed ratio of 1.3-to-1 further highlights poor battlefield medical care, painting a picture of a grinding war of attrition that Moscow is struggling to sustain.

Russian Land Gains Slump as Casualties Soar in Ukraine

Russia’s push across Ukraine looks to be losing momentum.

New intelligence from the United Kingdom shows Moscow’s forces are advancing more slowly than at any time this year, even as the Kremlin suffers enormous casualties for minimal territorial gains.

The British Ministry of Defense said Thursday that Russian troops captured about 250 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September, compared with around 465 square kilometers in August.

The slowdown is “highly likely” the result of Moscow redeploying elite airborne divisions from Sumy to the heavily contested regions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

Still, this conflict remains as bitter as ever. In September, Russia captured the village of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

This week, Ukraine has called on its citizens to evacuate Kupiansk as Russia has gained several northern areas of the Oblast.

Neutralizing The Houthi Threat: A Strategic Blueprint For The Red Sea And Beyond

Eric Navarro

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The United States stands at a strategic crossroads in the Red Sea. After years of strategic drift, the Trump administration confronted the Houthi threat decisively through sustained military operations from March 15 to May 6, 2025. Yet, while U.S. strikes inflicted damage, they failed to eliminate the threat. The cost of each U.S. munition—when measured against the Houthis’ low-tech but high-impact arsenal—exposed a stark asymmetry. This imbalance, together with political considerations, likely influenced President Trump’s decision to halt the strikes after the Houthis temporarily paused their maritime attacks. That pause ended on July 6–7, 2025, when the Houthis struck two Greek-managed bulk carriers and launched a ballistic missile attack against Ben Gurion Airport in Israel. In short, the Houthis reminded the world that they remain committed to achieving their strategic objectives through violence.

These latest Houthi attacks underscore that defeating the group requires more than short-term tactical gains but a comprehensive, integrated strategy. Such a strategy must target not only the Houthis’ military capabilities but also their financial networks, political legitimacy, and external support systems. Anything less will allow the Houthis to regroup and rearm. Iran will continue to exploit the Houthis as a proxy to destabilize the region, even as near-peer rivals like China expand their foothold in the global commons. At stake are the United States’ credibility, regional stability, and the free flow of global trade.

The Red Sea is vital to U.S. interests and the broader international order, serving as a strategic nexus linking Europe, Asia, and Africa. Nearly 15 percent of global trade transits the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. With every ship the Houthis attack, every insurance premium they inflate, and every trade route they divert, malign actors accrue power at the United States’ expense. History exposes how vulnerable this corridor is. The Somali piracy crisis of the early 2000s nearly crippled regional trade and compelled costly multinational interventions. Today’s threats are even more acute, as Iran and China actively seek to exert influence over these critical chokepoints.

The Challenge of Golden Dome

Kevin Eyer

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The “Golden Dome Project,” announced by President Trump in May 2025, is advertised to be a multi-layer defense system for the United States, designed to safeguard the homeland from various aerial threats, including ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise weapons.

In other words, the President intends to render the United States impervious to air attack originating anywhere on the globe, from any enemy possessing any level of sophistication.

There is an allure to this, especially considering Israel’s remarkable anti-missile record over the past two years. Invulnerability to a missile attack? What could be more desirable, and what foolishness it would be to not achieve the timely completion such a wonderful thing. Here, finally, is the realization of the promise made by President Ronald Reagan in 1983, when he proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI).

SDI was intended to protect the United States from attack by nuclear ballistic missiles, primarily from the Soviet Union, during the Cold War. “Star Wars,” as SDI was more commonly known, was to include space-based laser and particle beam weapons, sophisticated ground, and space-based sensors, and a new generation of ground-based, anti-missile missiles, featuring Kinetic Kill Vehicles (KKVs) that would maneuver, post-launch, to directly impact threat warheads. Ultimately, Star Wars broke apart on the rocks of the closing of the Cold War. As the threat of nuclear exchange diminished, the nation began to look for a post-Cold War “peace dividend,” and it quickly became plain that the cost of SDI was not only exorbitant, but that the technologies required to operationalize the system were far beyond the capability of the day.

Today, while global thermonuclear war seems far less of a threat than it did in 1983, it remains a ghastly possibility. Yet even if the desire to shield the nation from existential attack exists, the other issues that haunted SDI into an early grave remain. As was the case in the 1980s, the technology required to make the Golden Dome a reality is not nearly here, and much of that technology remains little more than theoretical. Moreover, even if the US should decide to shoulder the burdens necessary to mature the required technologies, the cost to field a capable system will certainly reach into the trillions.

How Trump Can Better Deal With New Delhi

Mike Watson

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NEW DELHI—As he showed in the Knesset this week, Donald Trump is making a serious bid to become a historically consequential figure, not just for upending American politics, but also for furthering world peace. A recent trip to India revealed the peace campaign creates some problems for Trump in the region, but also important opportunities.

Indians largely celebrated the peace deal for Gaza. They too have suffered grievously from terrorism over the past several decades, and sympathy for Israel has grown accordingly. The old parliament building still bears scars from a jihadist attack in 2001, and other Indian cities, such as Mumbai, have been rocked by massive bombings and mass shootings. Indians increasingly realize their country, Israel, and the United States face a common foe, and they applaud defeats inflicted on that enemy.

Trump’s economic pressure campaign on Russia has been tougher to swallow. Since independence, India has tried to steer clear of entanglement with any great power, but the 1971 pact with the Soviet Union bore many similarities to an alliance. It also locked New Delhi into certain long-term propositions, like weapons co-production, that are harder to unwind.

More significantly, India dreads the prospect of facing a united China and Russia, and is trying hard to separate the two. It fears pressure will drive Moscow further into China’s arms rather than to the negotiating table.

The real bone of contention between New Delhi and Washington about Russia, however, has been the recent tariff over Russian oil purchases. After Vladimir Putin effectively shut down negotiations to end the war he started, India got caught in the crossfire. Trump announced in August a 25-percent tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil. This week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to pause those purchases until the war ends, and Trump lifted the tariff.

UK spy chief warns of AI danger, though not disaster-movie doom

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LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - AI systems acting without human control could one day pose a security threat, the head of Britain's MI5 spy agency said on Thursday, although he said he was not predicting doom scenarios as depicted in sci-fi movies.

Tech leaders have warned about the dangers of unchecked AI, and that people should be concerned about a "Terminator" future, as seen in the film series about an artificial intelligence system that becomes self-aware and tries to wipe out humanity.

In his annual speech on threats to Britain, MI5 chief Ken McCallum said AI was used by the British security services to make their work more effective, while terrorists employed it for propaganda and target reconnaissance, and state actors to manipulate elections and sharpen cyberattacks.

"But in 2025, while contending with today’s threats, we also need to scope out the next frontier: potential future risks from non-human, autonomous AI systems which may evade human oversight and control," he said.

"Given the risk of hype and scare-mongering, I will choose my words carefully. I am not forecasting Hollywood movie scenarios ... But, as AI capabilities continue to power ahead, you would expect organisations like MI5 ... to be thinking deeply, today, about what 'Defending the Realm' might need to look like in the years ahead," he said.

"Artificial intelligence may never ‘mean’ us harm," McCallum said. "But it would be reckless to ignore the potential for it to cause harm. We’re on the case."

UN Security Council Backs Lebanon’s Efforts To Assert Sovereignty, Calls For Global Support Of Army

Ephrem Kossaify

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UN Security Council on Friday expressed its strong support for Lebanese authorities in their efforts to assert sovereignty over their entire territory, and called on international community to step up the assistance it provides to the Lebanese Armed Forces.

It comes as UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon report violations of UN resolutions, including the discovery of unauthorized weapon caches.

In a unanimous statement, the 15 members of the Security Council welcomed the Lebanese government’s commitment to the extension of state authority across the country through the deployment of the army, and said no authority should be recognized other than that of the government.

They also called for increased international backing to ensure the “effective and sustainable deployment” of the Lebanese army south of the Litani River, a region in which tensions with neighboring Israel have frequently flared.

Members reiterated their full support for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon and urged all sides in the country to take “all necessary measures” to guarantee the safety of the peacekeepers and their facilities. “Peacekeepers must never be targeted by attack,” they said.

The council called on all parties to honor their commitments under the Nov. 26, 2024, cessation of hostilities agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, and to adhere to the principles of international humanitarian law by ensuring the protection of civilians.

Welcoming the stated willingness of Beirut to delineate and demarcate its border with Syria, and its efforts to curb cross-border smuggling, council members called for the full implementation of Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1559, which address the disarmament of non-state militias and the authority of the Lebanese state.

Also on Friday, Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said that UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, have been monitoring and reporting violations of resolution 1701, including unauthorized weapon caches, in their area of operations.

“On Thursday, mortar shells were found in Sector West, while on Tuesday, a joint patrol with the Lebanese army discovered damaged rockets and their launchers in Sector East,” he said.

“UNIFIL also continues to observe Israel Defense Forces military activities in the area of operations, including on Wednesday, where mortar fire from south of the Blue Line was detected, impacting near Yaroun in Sector West.”

The Blue Line is a line of demarcation separating Israel and Lebanon set by the UN in 2000 to confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

“Also on Wednesday, in Sarda in Sector East, IDF soldiers pointed infrared lasers at UNIFIL patrol vehicles,” Dujarric said. “We once again stress these acts of interference must stop.

“Meanwhile, UNIFIL’s Maritime Task Force conducted training this week with Lebanese Navy personnel aboard a Maritime Task Force vessel. Separately, peacekeepers in Sector East trained with Lebanese army personnel to address threats posed by explosive remnants of war.”

AUSA NEWS: Army Developing Large Language Models to Enhance Targeting

Laura Heckmann

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Army is evolving large language models into reasoning models that can generate skillsets to free up targeting experts.

“We have to be able to hit the right target at the right time,” said Col. Jonathan Harvey, director of theater fires element for United States Army Pacific. “Thousands of objects we will be able to see. We have to distill those thousands of objects to hundreds of targets, and then choose the right 10 targets to effect at the right time to inflict maximum damage if we end up in a conflict.”

The only way to do this is with technology, he said during a panel at the United States Army Association’s annual meeting and exposition Oct. 15.

The service has been exploring large language models to help, and the one Army Pacific has “moved out the quickest on” is a model sponsored by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in partnership with Project Convergence — “a sufficient joint weapon-target pairing AI large language model that will run inside the kill chain,” Harvey said.

The model began in an Indo-Pacific Command exercise, and “we further advanced it to be able to actually prove and do joint weapon-[target] pairing using the air coordination or airspace or putting instructions in weapons deployment from across the Joint Force to build joint strike packages,” Harvey said.

Now, Army Pacific is moving to evolve the model from a simple large language model to “an actually fully evolved reasoning model that we are modeling after the field artillery warrant officer,” he said. “So, from [chief warrant officer 3] down, we're currently in the process of training a large language model with human machine pairing, with automation, with reasoning decision criteria involved inside of it, to help us build those … rote skill sets that a warrant officer currently does.”

Such a model could free up the warrant officer corps and targeting experts “to do the high cognitive work of actually providing advice, actually providing experience and bringing that to the commander,” Harvey said.