Denny Roy
One of many vivid Chinese aphorisms is “chóng dǎo fù zhé,” which describes a cart following in the same tracks as an overturned cart further up the road. It’s a metaphor for repeating the same mistake despite fair warning. The PRC’s recent South China Sea policy fits this scenario.
The use of increasingly harsh “gray zone” tactics—so harsh they border on what are traditionally recognized as acts of war—is producing diminishing returns for China. The Chinese government should draw the conclusion that its interests are best served by seeking an amicable settlement with the other claimants. Unfortunately, however, that almost certainly won’t happen.
China’s ability to deploy navy, coast guard and maritime militia vessels into the South China Sea is unmatched by any other Southeast Asian country, and the gap is growing. China is the world leader in gray zone tactics, both in innovation and operational experience. Despite those advantages, however, China’s intimidation tactics during the last year were largely ineffective.
Although reticent to confront China publicly, Malaysia is continuing its hydrocarbon exploration in its own EEZ despite protests and harassment by China. Indonesia claimed to drive out Chinese Coast Guard vessels attempting to interfere with drilling operations in Indonesian waters. Beijing especially dislikes neighbors welcoming the US military into the region, but Malaysia and Indonesia continue to participate in joint exercises with the US armed forces.
Some Vietnamese fishermen continued to suffer ramming, beatings and confiscation of their fish catch by Chinese maritime law enforcement personnel. Nevertheless, although cautious about alarming China, Vietnam held a humanitarian training activity with American military personnel. Another aspect of Vietnam’s pushback is its extensive and dramatic land reclamation. In 2021, Vietnam had only one-tenth the amount of China’s reclaimed land in the Spratly Islands. By 2024, however, Vietnam had reclaimed two-thirds as much land as China had, and in 2025 Vietnam will probably equal China’s acreage. While China occupies the three largest features in the Spratlys (Mischief, Subi and Fiery Cross Reefs), Vietnam occupies the next four largest.
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