Jean-Luc Marret
The historical evolution of terrorism or political violence can be observed within a technology cycle framework. The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) as a tactic, while present in earlier periods, was arguably “mainstreamed” in the context of the chaotic situation that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein. Then, the Salafi-jihadi GSPC group initially deployed this terrorist standard in Algeria in the mid-2000s, before spreading it to Western Europe, jointly with global jihad fringes. The same could be said about mass urban terrorism or high jackings:
violent techniques and uses of emerging technologies are disseminated by phases of imitation, until security countermeasures win, if possible.
Terrorist or violent extremist groups may well have a historical imagination that harkens back to a perfect epoch or an eschatological future, they are “in the now”: beyond their doctrine or vision, they seek access to technology and know-how. Some of them benefit from state support. Support from a state such as Iran can function as an innovation accelerator, offering asymmetric actors access to advanced capabilities relative to the state’s own technological level. Conversely, the absence of such support compels violent extremist networks and groups to pursue technology in a more empirical way. This may entail acquiring mass-market technological products for asymmetrical purposes, such as purchasing drones for reconnaissance or propaganda. Alternatively, they may rely on the improvised initiative of an activist or sympathizer with limited skills. For instance, Hamas has frequently sought the assistance of engineers who are sympathetic to its nascent drone program (on-site assembly of Iranian systems, local R&D).
In recent years, several technologies have emerged – including small drones, 3D-printed weaponry (commonly known as “ghost guns”, or untraceable arms due to the lack of serial numbers and improvised manufacture), and more recently, artificial intelligence tools – that have either already been employed by violent extremist actors or present a significant risk of future exploitation for such purposes.
The aim of this research paper is to provide a concise analysis of how violent extremist actors currently exploit these technologies – or may potentially do so in the future.
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