China Is Enjoying Trump 2.0

Yun Sun

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In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election in 2024, Chinese policymakers and intellectual elites feared the worst for relations between China and the United States. The bitterness and trauma of the first Trump administration’s trade war lingered in Beijing. And with an already sluggish economy and glaring vulnerabilities from trade interdependence, China’s leaders braced for what experts privately called an “unprecedented storm” that could doom bilateral relations.

Six months into Trump’s second term, however, the outlook in Beijing has improved markedly. The storm came and went—and left Chinese policymakers feeling that they have far more power and leverage over the United States on trade than they had previously imagined. And for now, at least, Beijing views the trade-deficit-obsessed Trump as a more pragmatic and adaptable partner to work with than the China hawks that called the shots during Trump’s first term.

China’s leaders now believe they can broker a trade deal with Trump to reduce tensions. They are eager to host a summit between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this fall to establish a more positive tone for the relationship between Washington and Beijing. The newfound optimism does not mean that Beijing thinks it has found a permanent solution to U.S.-Chinese relations, however; the overwhelming feeling in elite circles in China remains that the two countries are entangled in long-term strategic competition. But China’s leaders want to use their trade leverage to craft a deal that will buy them time to mitigate their political and security vulnerabilities. In dealing with a second Trump administration, China’s leaders believe they may have found an opportunity to achieve their goals without a war with the United States.

THE TABLES HAVE TURNED

When Trump was inaugurated for a second time on January 20, 2025, Beijing expected that he would resume bilateral relations where he had left them four years earlier. That meant revamped efforts by his administration to address the trade imbalance between the United States and China, likely through aggressive punitive tariffs. Beijing also braced itself for U.S. criticism of China’s political regime, including its treatment of minority groups and dissidents, and worried about enhanced U.S. support for Taiwan.