Xiaolong (James) Wang
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), currently in final formulation stages ahead of its approval at the March 2026 National People’s Congress, contains within its emerging framework a quietly revolutionary element that deserves urgent U.S. attention: the systematic institutionalization of Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) as the primary mechanism for defense modernization.
While the plan’s final outline awaits formal approval, key policy guidance and strategic themes – such as Xi Jinping’s “strategic endurance” directive, the draft AI-Plus initiative, and the expanded Military-Civil Fusion framework – have already been publicly floated by central leadership, ministry white papers, provincial consultations, and official commentaries throughout 2025. These provisional signals reveal a deeper strategic transformation beyond China’s well-publicized semiconductor self-reliance goals or artificial intelligence ambitions: Beijing is creating an integrated ecosystem where civilian technological innovation automatically serves military purposes.
This constitutes a fundamental reimagining of how a major power harnesses its entire technological base for strategic competition. The implications for U.S. defense planning are profound. What is required is an equally comprehensive rethinking of how the United States can compete effectively while preserving the innovation advantages that have historically defined American technological leadership.
Under Xi’s direct oversight through the Central Commission for Military-Civil Fusion Development, China has moved beyond the traditional model of distinct civilian and military technology sectors toward what Beijing terms a “fused” system. The emerging 15th Five-Year Plan framework suggests the final document will institutionalize MCF as the primary pathway for achieving what Chinese strategists call an “intelligentized” People’s Liberation Army (PLA) by 2035.
Recent analysis of PLA procurement contracts reveals the strategy’s accelerating effectiveness: the majority of suppliers for AI-related military capabilities are now civilian companies and universities rather than traditional state-owned defense enterprises. Chinese universities have established hundreds of MCF platforms and national defense laboratories specifically to support PLA requirements in areas like deep learning, machine vision, and intelligent robotics.
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