Kriti Upadhyaya
As Washington debates how to deter China, one fact rings true: without India, any U.S. deterrence strategy is incomplete. The rise of the New Right has brought Realism into sharper focus in U.S. foreign policy. It rejects illusions about global democracy promotion, endless wars, or the magic of globalization. Instead, it embraces nationalism, focuses on hard power, and is serious about rebuilding America’s industrial base and technological edge. Every aspect of that worldview makes India more, not less, important.
The current Under Secretary of War for Policy, Elbridge Colby, was lead author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy during President Trump’s first term. That document was clear in its ambition: America must concentrate on Asia and deny China hegemony, while leaning on allies to shoulder more of the load. Colby has described India as the type of ally the U.S. “needs more of” because it is an “independent and autonomous partner.”
Now in President Trump’s second term, Vice President JD Vance has argued the U.S. must rebuild its industrial base and end critical dependencies on adversaries. In a Michigan speech earlier this year, he put it plainly: “If we do not protect our nation’s manufacturers, we lose a fundamental part of who we are as a people. Making things, building things, working with our hands is America’s heritage…”
Under President Trump’s guidance, Colby and Vance have sketched a worldview of the New Right that stresses building resilience at home and practicing Realism abroad.
President Trump’s first term elevated the Indo-Pacific, advanced defense ties with India, and put confronting China at the center of U.S. national security strategy. His return now gives the New Right an opportunity to say America is not quitting the world—it’s economizing some of its commitments outside of Asia. Behind this shift is a recognition that China is no longer just a competitor, but a capable peer bent on displacing the United States.
In that challenge, arguably no country matters more than India. A denial strategy in Asia collapses without it. Geography puts India up against China on land and astride China’s critical sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean. Size and scale give India, now the most populous country in the world, weight no ally can match. Political will has already been tested in real clashes with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
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