Iran nuclear negotiations snap back to the past

Alexander K. Bollfrass

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France, Germany and the UK have recently triggered the snapback mechanism of the JCPOA, designed to curb Iran’s nuclear programme. Examining the history of Iran’s nuclear negotiations raises questions about the success of such sanctions and a future of Iranian non-compliance.

Following over two decades of international diplomatic wrangling over, and targeted sabotage of, Iran’s nuclear programme, Israel and the United States struck key components of the country’s nuclear and missile infrastructure in June 2025. In late August 2025, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (collectively referred to as the European three: E3) triggered the 'snapback' mechanism, reinstating the sanctions in late September 2025 that had been lifted under the terms of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Following these events and the further deterioration of Iran–Israel relations, what are the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme?

Negotiations before the 12-day war

Prior to the 12-day war and the reinstatement of sanctions, negotiations between Iran and the international community were characterised by periods of cooperation and of non-compliance.

In August 2002, Iran’s secret uranium-enrichment facilities at Natanz and a heavy-water production facility at Arak were revealed as part of what is widely believed to have been a covert nuclear-weapons programme. The E3 led the initial international negotiations following the revelations, resulting in a 2004 agreement in which Iran suspended enrichment.

However, Iran resumed enrichment in 2005, ending the E3-led negotiations. In February 2006, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) referred Iran to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), leading to a decade of escalating sanctions on Tehran, while the country continued to build its nuclear infrastructure.

The continuing growth of Iran’s nuclear programme included covert efforts, such as the Fordow enrichment site, which was revealed in 2009. Under then-president Barack Obama, US policy increased pressure on Iran through sanctions and a reportedly joint cyber attack with the Israelis on Iranian centrifuges. However, the US became more flexible on the enrichment issue during negotiations with the five permanent members of the UNSC – China, France, Russia, the UK and the US – and Germany (P5+1).