Paul Goble
Kyiv is moving toward more openly backing non-Russian national movements within Russia. It is convinced that such efforts will help it defeat Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and that the decolonization of Russia will ensure Ukraine’s future security.
Such moves, which have their origins in earlier efforts by Ukraine and others to counter Moscow, have so far been largely limited to declarations about Russian colonialism and providing a haven for nationalist leaders. That appears set to change.
The lengths that Ukraine will now go to, however, remain unclear, but its moves have already alarmed Moscow and prompted it to crack down, and are worrying some in Ukraine and the West that any such moves could prove counterproductive, at least in the short term.
Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukrainians have focused attention on the large Ukrainian communities inside the Russian Federation (see EDM, January 18, 2023, January 25, July 30, 2024). Since Moscow launched its attacks on Ukrainian territory in 2014 and especially since 2022, Kyiv has also devoted more attention to non-Russian national movements within the current borders of the Russian Federation (see EDM, October 13, 2023). It has done so both in response to Moscow’s efforts to play up the ethnic factor in Ukraine and because it is convinced that such moves will help Ukraine defeat Russian invaders now and ensure Ukraine’s security over the longer term (Politarena, October 6).
Many Ukrainian commentators and Verkhovna Rada deputies have long pressed for a more activist approach and have invoked the precedent of Poland’s Promethean movement and Captive Nations Week resolutions in the United States and the actions flowing from both as precedent (see EDM, October 8, 2013, October 13, 2022, July 18, 2023). Kyiv’s official steps, however, have been largely limited to declarations about Russian colonialism, the formation of some small non-Russian units to fight on the side of Ukraine against Russia, and the providing of a haven for non-Russian leaders under attack at home (Window on Eurasia, June 7, 2023; see EDM, July 28, 2022, November 19, 2013, January 14). Even these moves have been sufficient to alarm Moscow and prompt it to intensify repression against non-Russians in the Russian Federation, while presenting itself as the defender of Russia as a whole (see EDM, August 10, 2023; Window on Eurasia, October 10, 2023).
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