Hanjin Lew
John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison distinguished service professor of political science at the University of Chicago, is considered to be one of the most influential international relations theorists of his generation. Image: IAI
The World Knowledge Forum was held on October 10, 2025, in Seoul. One of the headline speakers on the panel “The Future of the Global Geoeconomic Order” was political scientist John Mearsheimer, known worldwide as a leading realist thinker.
His realism – often dismissed as pessimism by liberal internationalists – has repeatedly proven prescient. In international relations, theories are only as valuable as their predictive power, and Mearsheimer’s record stands out.
He warned in the 1990s that NATO’s eastward expansion would provoke Russia – a forecast borne out by the Ukraine war.
In The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001), he argued that a rising China would inevitably clash with the United States – a view now accepted as conventional wisdom.
He also foresaw that post-Cold War American overreach would exhaust US power while fueling nationalist backlash abroad.
America’s global posture
At the Seoul forum, Mearsheimer outlined Washington’s strategic priorities. The United States, he said, cares most about three regions: Europe, the Middle East and East Asia. Europe was once foremost, but no longer. The Middle East remains critical mainly because of the US-Israel relationship and energy interests.
Today, East Asia is the most important region because of the US-China rivalry. Yet, as he noted, Washington is “deeply enmeshed” in wars elsewhere – bogged down in Ukraine and heavily engaged in the Middle East.
“The fact that we’re enmeshed in the Middle East and Europe means that the last thing we want is a crisis in East Asia,” he said.
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