When a Trade War Becomes a Food Fight

Philip Luck, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Duc Minh Nguyet (Moon) Nguyen

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The U.S. agricultural sector is once again caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China trade war. For decades, China’s immense agricultural market has been a top destination for U.S. exports. Now, as Washington and Beijing escalate tariffs and other retaliatory measures, U.S. farmers are scrambling to find new buyers just as Chinese consumers turn to alternative suppliers. Unlike the 2018 trade war, which was estimated to have slashed U.S. agricultural exports by more than $27 billion, the current dispute is compounded by rising input costs and labor shortages at home. The result is not merely a short-term disruption; it could signal a sweeping reconfiguration of global agricultural trade stretching from Latin America to Europe and Australia.

U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Have Plummeted

In response to mounting economic pressure from Washington, Beijing launched a salvo of tariffs and other retaliatory measures against U.S. agricultural exporters. Chinese tariffs on many U.S. agricultural imports rose by 10–15 percentage points in the spring of 2025. These increased tariffs have rendered many U.S. products uncompetitive, prompting Chinese buyers to pivot to other suppliers. U.S. exporters are also facing new nontariff trade barriers that create regulatory hurdles to selling into Chinese markets. On top of these challenges, U.S. farmers are facing rising input costs that squeeze their bottom lines and drive prices upward, further eroding their competitiveness in global markets.

Together, these trends are taking a heavy toll on the U.S. agricultural sector. U.S. agricultural exports to China have dropped by over $6.8 billion since January 2025, a staggering decline of over 73 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor data and CSIS calculations. These losses are felt most acutely in the U.S. South and Midwest, given the outsized role of soybeans, cotton, and grains in these states’ economies. Yet the West Coast, the Mountain West, and the Northeast have all borne shares of the shortfalls, through industries like tree nuts and meat products.