Vadim Shtepa
Executive Summary:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led to a domestic fuel crisis, as Ukraine’s repeated drone strikes on oil facilities, as well as international sanctions, have constrained Russia’s largest industry.
In September, Russia’s gasoline production fell by almost a quarter, forcing the Kremlin to impose a ban on gasoline exports until 2026, and to seek to import gasoline from the People’s Republic of China and Belarus.
Since 2022, Ukraine has dramatically reshaped its military production industry and become a world leader in drone technology, enabling it to mass-produce drones at a significantly lower cost than Russia can repair its domestic infrastructure.
On November 3, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukraine struck the Saratov oil refinery for the third time this fall. The General Staff also reported strikes on multiple Russian military logistics sites the same night (Telegram/GeneralStaffZSU; The Kyiv Independent, November 3). This is just one of the latest Ukrainian strikes on critical energy infrastructure in Russia. In 2014, former U.S. Senator John McCain referred to Russia as a “gas station masquerading as a country” (Voice of America, March 27, 2014). Since the early 2000s, Moscow has actively promoted the idea of Russia as an “energy superpower,” emphasizing that the oil and gas fields left over from the Soviet era could ensure economic prosperity. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, however, greatly damaged that notion with its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The full-scale war led to international sanctions aimed at constraining the Russian economy’s ability to support the war effort, with a particular focus on targeting oil and gas companies (Radio Svoboda, October 24).
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