GlobalData sector intelligence reveals that across the next decade, the global military loitering munitions market value is expected to surge from $1.3bn in 2025 to $2.5bn in 2035.
GlobalData
Loitering munitions are aerial weapons that can stay in the air while they search for a target, with some capable of returning to base in the case of unsuccessful target identification. Credit: Sergey Dzyuba via Shutterstock.com.
Uncrewed technologies have changed the character of high-intensity warfare in the three years since Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and loitering munitions are no exception. Loitering munitions are aerial weapons that can stay in the air while they search for a target, with some capable of returning to base in the case of unsuccessful target identification. While they operate similarly to armed drones, their self-destructive capabilities are what set them apart. Loitering munitions initially only played a limited role in the war in Ukraine, but the scope and scale of their use has grown dramatically such that they have become a key capability for modern militaries globally.
GlobalData sector intelligence reveals that across the next decade, the global military loitering munitions market value is expected to nearly double, surging from $1.3bn in 2025 to $2.5bn in 2035. In this period, Ukraine is expected to be the largest spender, acquiring systems worth an average of $825m annually over the 2025-2035 period. However, Ukraine’s armed forces are not the only nation with an interest in loitering munitions, as Russia, the US, Taiwan, China, and Iran are developing and purchasing their own systems.
The global military loitering munitions market value forecast ($M), 2025-2035
The LM market value is set to nearly double across the coming decade
Source: GlobalData, The Global Military Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) Market Forecast 2025-2035.
Iran holds a great deal of responsibility for the rise of loitering munitions in high-intensity warfare, as Russia launches thousands of their indigenously produced Shaheds against Ukraine each month. The evolution of the Shahed in recent years demonstrates many of the emerging trends in loitering munitions. Most infamously, despite export controls and other sanctions, certain variants of the Shahed have been found to use American AI chips produced by NVIDIA. Artificial Intelligence chips have a range of uses in loitering munitions but most commonly are used to process large amounts of data that enable target identification and cognitive functioning in the processing of high-resolution imagery. Alternative uses of AI in drones include autonomous drones and drone swarms, as well as self-repair features.
Other trends in loitering munitions include the development of techniques to operate in GNSS/GPS denied environments, (often using long, thin fiber-optic cables) and the use of battery powered electric motors for increased stealth. Of course, developers of loitering munitions continue to explore miniaturisation and scalability of these systems to contend with power usage and warhead weight challenges. AR/VR systems have also seen increased operability with loitering munitions in recent years.
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