Artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly, and global competition over its development and use is intensifying. The United States and China are at the center of this rivalry — each seeking an edge in AI research, deployment, and standard setting with far-reaching economic and security implications.
As governments and companies race to build ever more capable models, a debate is unfolding over an important question: What role should open-source AI play in this strategic landscape?
At its core, the question is about trade-offs. Opening AI systems can accelerate innovation, support transparency, and broaden adoption across borders. But especially in the context of U.S.–China competition, it can also raise serious concerns about how adversaries might exploit American breakthroughs for military or coercive purposes.
Beijing has made clear its ambition to achieve “global AI leadership” by 2030. China’s rapid progress in adoption and its state-backed ecosystem present a strategic test of whether—and how—the United States can sustain technological leadership without undermining its own openness, alliances, and values.
In this new report, ASPI Vice President Daniel Russel and Consultant Emily Ratté examine how open-source AI fits into U.S. efforts to stay ahead — while minimizing the risks of adversarial exploitation. Their analysis offers practical guidance on navigating this fast-moving frontier
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