Exclusive: The Admiral Who Must Prevent War With China

Time | Eric Cortellessa

Admiral Samuel Paparo, who leads the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, is now facing the historic task of preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as Beijing proceeds with its huge military build-up. With some 400,000 personnel and extensive naval resources under his command, Paparo intends to show credible strength by using a policy of deterrence through denial and by threatening to turn the Taiwan Strait into a drone-filled hellscape similar to the situation in modern warfare in Ukraine.

Even though the war games show that the United States and its allies will achieve a victory over an amphibious attack, the possible costs are still extremely high, particularly since other conflicts around the world are using up vital munitions. Paparo has to keep his pre-eminence and state of readiness over a huge area covering half the globe, balancing his classified capabilities with his overt deterrent in order to avoid a catastrophic great-power conflict.

Xi Jinping got the red carpet treatment from Trump - but not everything he wanted

Bbc | Laura Bicker

At the summit in Washington, President Xi Jinping enjoyed a high degree of ceremonial attention, but was unable to reach the main aims of his policy. The bilateral trade truce was extended by only a few months, from November to January, instead of being prolonged for a full year, so that the issues concerning tariffs, rare earth supplies, and advanced American chips were left for future talks.

Beijing is facing a domestic economic slowdown marked by low levels of consumer spending, a slow-moving property market, and high unemployment among young people, which means that protecting exports has become essential. Xi once again stated that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are a red line after a previously postponed $14 billion arms deal that Trump used as a tool of diplomatic leverage. Regarding artificial intelligence, no specific safety agreements were reached beyond each side asserting its commitment to human control, and panda diplomacy has once again begun with the sending of Ping Ping and Fu Shuang to Atlanta.

China’s artificial intelligence goals and strategic choices for Europe

Bruegel | Reinhardt Crouzet, Giuseppe Porcaro

China has positioned artificial intelligence at the centre of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030, pursuing technological self-reliance, domestic market safeguards, and global standard-setting. President Xi Jinping outlined this strategy at the July 2026 World AI Conference in Shanghai, promoting the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization to advance governance.

Beijing leverages state-coordinated industrial policy, including multibillion-dollar semiconductor funds and compute subsidies, to mitigate economic deceleration and integrate AI into military capabilities. Meanwhile, the United States relies on private-sector capital and export controls, whereas Europe remains structurally dependent on foreign cloud providers and hardware. European policymakers face critical strategic choices regarding growing technological integration with Chinese open-weight models versus continued reliance on American infrastructure, risking long-term digital sovereignty vulnerabilities across industrial and security sectors.

As Xi Visits Washington, Trump Plays Down China’s Actions Against U.S. Interests

New York Times | Erica L. Green

President Trump hosted President Xi Jinping of China for a state visit in Washington, dismissing multiple reported infractions by Beijing against American national interests. Despite accusations that Beijing engaged in sinister election meddling and provided satellite imagery and spy satellite access to Iranian military forces for regional attacks, Mr.

Trump portrayed Mr. Xi as a personal friend rather than a geopolitical competitor. Senator Roger Wicker, Republican of Mississippi and chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, criticized the invitation on the Senate floor, condemning the Chinese leader as an oppressive dictator with a massive military arsenal aimed at the United States. The diplomatic outreach bypassed ongoing bilateral rivalries spanning trade, artificial intelligence, and global power, drawing pushback from congressional allies over Beijing's continued business dealings with Tehran and defiance of U.S. economic sanctions.

Chinese Culture Is Not the Obstacle: Taiwan, Democracy, and the CCP’s Narrative War

Small Wars Journal | Russell D. Howard

Taiwan's consolidated democracy directly refutes the Chinese Communist Party's strategic narrative that democratic governance is fundamentally incompatible with Chinese civilization. The island boasts fierce political competition, peaceful transfers of power, and a thriving civil society while preserving its rich Confucian heritage. Taiwan is living proof. This democratic reality challenges Beijing's cognitive warfare, which seeks to frame one-party rule as the sole authentic expression of Chinese culture.

Historically, mainland reformers pursued constitutionalism through the 1898 Hundred Days Reform and the 1911 Revolution led by Dr. Sun Yat-sen. These efforts failed due to geopolitical instability, warlordism, and foreign invasion rather than cultural rejection. Today, the island's security remains vital to the United States, not only for its dominant role in the global semiconductor supply chain but as an ideological alternative. Defending this democratic model prevents Beijing from forcibly claiming exclusive ownership over the political future of Chinese civilization.

Xi-Trump dinner puts US tech titans in spotlight – what does it mean for ties?

Scmp | Vincent Chow

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump convened at a White House state dinner attended by prominent American technology executives, highlighting the central role of artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and bilateral tech competition. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su, and Apple executive chairman Tim Cook secured prime seats at the head table alongside both leaders in Washington.

That high-level corporate presence underscores how Washington increasingly evaluates its broader geopolitical relationship with Beijing primarily through a technological lens. Persistent strategic tensions between the two superpowers continue to shape commercial interactions across critical hardware and software markets. Diplomatic engagements remain closely tied to supply chain vulnerabilities and the ongoing tech war dynamics affecting global markets.

The Full Stack of U.S.-China Cyber Competition

Lawfare | Benjamin Ang

Full Stack Spies examines U.S.-China cyber competition across tradecraft, statecraft, and instability, utilizing an upstairs-downstairs framework that connects leadership decisions to operational execution. The book analyzes how Chinese state institutions like the Ministry of State Security and the People’s Liberation Army direct hacker groups embedded within commercial ecosystems.

It details the shift from intellectual property theft toward pre-positioning for disruption, specifically examining campaigns such as Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon. Strategic deterrence remains constrained by uncoordinated allied naming and shaming strategies that fail to alter Beijing's calculus. The analysis introduces volatile trust and not war as conceptual lenses to evaluate sub-threshold competition, though certain historical claims and attributions require closer scrutiny. Ultimately, the volume provides a structural foundation for bridging the gap between technical cyber mechanics and grand strategy.

Allocating AI Priority: A Strategic Token Reserve?

Small Wars Journal | Terence Check

The United States government faces severe operational risks during national crises because commercial artificial intelligence models lack prioritization mechanisms, prompting proposals to establish a strategic token reserve or leverage Title I of the Defense Production Act to guarantee immediate, machine-speed inference access for critical national security and emergency services over recreational users.

Without intervention, adversaries could exploit market-based allocation by launching computationally expensive energy-latency attacks to clog queues and degrade decision-making. This vulnerability stems from fixed short-term inference capacity, as constructing data centers requires years of permitting and grid integration. While the AI Action Plan contemplates priority access for the Department of War, a broader reserve would protect private sector network defenders and critical infrastructure. Decision windows are incredibly short. Voluntary agreements under existing legal frameworks would allow frontier model providers to coordinate reserve capacity without incurring antitrust liability, securing America's technological edge.

The Trouble With the Nuclear-AI Analogy: America Is Learning the Wrong Lessons From the Atomic Age

Foreign Affairs | Charles L. Glaser

Policymakers and tech executives frequently draw on atomic-age frameworks to propose nonproliferation regimes, verification bodies, and arms control agreements for artificial intelligence. However, the historical record of nuclear governance is far more muddled than this analogy suggests, having relied heavily on superpower coercion, domestic priority shifts, and improbably good luck during near-miss crises like the Cuban missile crisis.

Furthermore, the nuclear order is currently fraying as bilateral treaties collapse and states expand their arsenals. Crucially, nuclear technology differs fundamentally from AI because fissile materials are physically constrained and traceable, whereas AI components are built by private companies with profit motives across nearly every sector. This technological divergence, combined with the absence of a catastrophic catalyst to generate sustained political pressure, means the atomic blueprint cannot provide a ready-made governance framework for regulating fast-advancing artificial intelligence.

What Machiavelli Would Say About Trump

Foreign Policy | Stephen M. Walt

United States President Donald Trump is defying Niccolò Machiavelli’s foundational principles of effective statecraft, embodying a guide on how to be a very bad prince. While Machiavelli argued that it is better to be feared than loved, Trump’s blunders, such as the war with Iran, and the general inconstancy of his regime have caused other countries to lose their fear and push back against his predatory approach.

Trump has increasingly become hated and despised due to his attacks on subjects' property and women, his fiscal spendthrift habits, and his ignorance of military affairs. He is mired in an unwinnable conflict that damages the U.S. position while weaponizing the Justice Department for arbitrary personal vendettas. Furthermore, whereas Machiavelli advised that a ruler must conceal deception behind an appearance of virtue, Trump’s public prevarications fail the basic requirements of successful statecraft.

Unleashing Achilles: How the Army Can Build a Faster Learning Force

Small Wars Journal | Howard C. Romans III, Richard A. McConnell

The U.S. Army must accelerate its institutional learning loops to prevent rapidly evolving autonomous systems, proliferating sensors, and dual-use technologies from permanently outperforming traditional military acquisition and training processes. Recent directives like the 30 April 2025 acquisition reform memorandum mandate division-level unmanned systems and counter-UAS capabilities, yet bureaucratic bottlenecks block rapid scaling.

This systemic friction stems from a deeply ingrained military culture that resists ambiguity and intellectual risk, as demonstrated by officer discomfort during creative exercises at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. In contrast, Ukrainian forces under existential pressure have bypassed centralised programs. By April 2025, their Brave1 platform registered over 1,500 companies and 1,000 solutions, proving that decentralised, user-driven ecosystems can rapidly field commercial technologies. Adaptation is now a continuous cycle. To institutionalise this agility, the proposed Army Innovation Learning Architecture outlines a five-step process—capture, screen, test, share, and institutionalise—to systematically scale grassroots soldier innovations before they disappear.

Special agents' blood and urine test results stolen in FBI hack

BBC | Joe Tidy

The cyber-criminal group ShinyHunters breached Federal Bureau of Investigation systems and compromised sensitive medical data for approximately 60,000 current and former special agents. The stolen files include fitness-for-work examinations containing blood and urine test results, home addresses, phone numbers, and doctors' notes detailing personal health conditions. Experts warn that the permanent nature of compromised medical records leaves law enforcement personnel highly vulnerable to targeted phishing, identity fraud, blackmail, and impersonation operations.

The hackers claim they exploited a vulnerability in an Oracle cloud storage system utilized across multiple internal platforms, including the FBI MedLink database and the FBI BEAST background-check repository. Rather than demanding financial ransom, the collective is seeking a retraction of an agency advisory published in May. The Federal Bureau of Investigation stated it is aggressively investigating the breach to determine whether the infiltration occurred directly or via a third-party vendor supporting FBIJobs.gov.

FBI investigating claim hackers have stolen details of all its agents

Bbc | Joe Tidy

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is actively investigating a claim by the cyber-crime collective ShinyHunters that it has compromised sensitive data belonging to approximately 38,000 bureau staff members. The threat group asserted that it exfiltrated names, badge numbers, home addresses, phone numbers, and spouse information by exploiting a vulnerability in an Oracle cloud storage system utilized by the bureau.

This breach reportedly affected internal platforms including FBIJOBS, FBI BEAST, FBI MedLink, and FBI BICS, with leaked samples exposing assignments targeting foreign intelligence agencies and drug cartels. The hackers stated the intrusion was motivated by retaliation rather than financial gain, demanding the bureau retract a May public service announcement characterizing them as extortionists. The group warned that failure to remove the advisory within one week will result in the full database publication. Meanwhile, the bureau stated it is evaluating whether its own servers or third-party infrastructure providers were compromised.

The System, Not the Centrifuges

Small Wars Journal | Rania Kisar

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, signed on 17 June 2026 to halt United States-Iran hostilities, collapsed within weeks because it failed to address Tehran's regional proxy networks and ballistic missile capabilities. This diplomatic failure triggered a resumption of military operations on 7 July 2026, leaving the strategic Strait of Hormuz highly vulnerable to maritime coercion.

Historically, Washington has prioritised nuclear containment over regional security dynamics. This narrow focus allowed Iran to build an expansive, asymmetric threat network while nearing the nuclear threshold. Consequently, Gulf capitals now face severe economic blackmail through inflated shipping fees and targeted infrastructure strikes. The conflict remains unresolved. Any future diplomatic settlement that ignores these non-nuclear leverage points will merely reschedule the next military confrontation, leaving exposed partners to bear the immediate operational and financial costs of renewed escalation while Tehran retains its coercive regional leverage.

An Overture to Victory: Operation Vivaldi and Ukraine’s Path to Battlefield Decision

Modern War Institute | Franz-Stefan Gady

Ukraine's 3rd Corps launched Operation Vivaldi in May, collapsing a Russian salient near Lyman and liberating up to 250 square kilometers of land after achieving decisive drone dominance over Russian forces. By saturating rear areas with AI-enabled Hornet drones operating more than 150 kilometers behind the front, Ukrainian forces severed logistics, neutralized Russia's elite Rubicon drone unit, and isolated enemy formations.

This tactical success stems from a broader middle-strike campaign championed by defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov, shifting Ukraine away from narrow attritional approaches toward operational-level breakthroughs reminiscent of Soviet deep operations doctrine. However, overcoming continuous defenses in depth remains challenging due to heavy drone surveillance, requiring sustained targeting of enemy command structures and sustainment lines. While Operation Vivaldi validates this strategic pivot, transforming such local breakthroughs into a decisive victory requires scaling exploitation tempo to fundamentally alter Russian strategic calculations.

The Impacts of the Houthis’ Advance Could Extend Well Beyond Saudi Arabia

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Andrew Leber, Lesley Anne Warner

Yemen’s Houthis captured the Port of Mokha and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, shattering a UN-brokered ceasefire and threatening critical global energy trade routes amid broader conflict with Saudi Arabia. This territorial expansion brings Houthi forces within 80 miles of Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti while intensifying security risks for Saudi energy infrastructure already strained by pipeline attacks.

Furthermore, the strategic shift enables closer operational collaboration between the Houthis and al-Shabaab through weapons exchanges and technical training. Meanwhile, the impending termination of U.S. funding for UN logistical support in Somalia threatens to provide militant groups with greater freedom of movement across the Horn of Africa. These compounding maritime and regional security developments complicate multilateral efforts to stabilize Red Sea shipping corridors and force regional actors to confront an expanded battlespace extending far beyond the immediate Yemeni theater.

Big Tech Is Destroying Democracy. Here’s How to Fight Back.

Foreign Policy | Ravi Agrawal

Digital information ecosystems are undermining democratic governance globally through algorithmic architectures designed to maximize engagement via outrage and polarization. Artificial intelligence platforms accelerate this destabilization by generating persuasive disinformation at scale, weakening institutional trust and empowering autocratic actors. Addressing these systemic vulnerabilities requires coordinated regulatory interventions, increased transparency from technology corporations, and legal frameworks holding platforms accountable for the societal harms propagated by their business models.

Without decisive structural reforms to alter the economic incentives driving digital platforms, democratic institutions will continue facing severe erosion from unchecked algorithmic manipulation and information warfare.

Space and AI – the final frontier

Engelsbergideas | Nayef Al-Rodhan

Artificial intelligence, quantum systems, robotics, and synthetic biology are converging to transform space exploration into an era of Disruptive Techno-Convergence. This technological fusion enables rovers like NASA’s Perseverance to navigate independently while driving commercial plans for large-scale orbital data centres powered by continuous solar exposure. However, concentrating computational power and hybrid intelligence architectures beyond terrestrial jurisdiction risks deepening global digital asymmetries and escaping regulatory oversight.

As decision cycles compress to machine speeds across tightly coupled systems, geopolitical competition over orbital infrastructure intensifies, raising the potential for rapid escalation. Without robust ethical frameworks and cooperative governance, the very capabilities driving human expansion into space could simultaneously magnify systemic vulnerabilities and civilisational risks.

Space and the new struggle for civilisational supremacy

Engelsberg Ideas | John B. Sheldon

Chinese and Russian space officials announced plans for a joint International Lunar Research Station to put humans on the moon by the mid-2030s, following the US Artemis Accords and similar lunar exploration initiatives by Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. This contemporary space competition transcends traditional geopolitics, serving as an absolute mandate for civilisational states seeking grandeur and permanent dominion beyond Earth.

The democratisation and cost reduction of space technologies since the 1990s have enabled powers worldwide to pursue independent spaceflight and infrastructure. Unlike Cold War rivalries aimed at terrestrial ideological dominance, today's race leverages a trillion-dollar space economy to establish habitable lunar bases and project cultural values into the solar system. While critics highlight terrestrial challenges like climate change and poverty, space exploration remains an inescapable civilisational imperative driven by domestic validation, power, and influence.

China vs US: Who is winning the AI race, in four charts

Al Jazeera | Hanna Duggal

United States President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington, DC, to address critical bilateral issues, including a proposed artificial intelligence notification hotline to mitigate national security risks. This diplomatic push occurs as both superpowers aggressively accelerate their respective AI capabilities to secure global technological dominance.

Currently, the US maintains a significant lead in infrastructure, holding nearly three-quarters of global AI computing power and operating 5,400 data centres compared to China's 14 percent capacity share. Furthermore, US hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft are projected to spend $764bn on AI infrastructure in 2026, dwarfing the $102bn projected for Chinese counterparts like Alibaba and Tencent. The spending gap remains vast. However, Chinese open-weight models like DeepSeek V4 Pro are rapidly closing the performance gap, trailing US frontier systems by only eight months. China also dominates academic output, producing over 27 percent of global AI scholarly publications.

Navy wants more offensive, ‘expeditionary’ cyber capabilities

Breaking Defense | Justin Katz

The US Navy is actively seeking commercial capabilities from industry to conduct offensive cyber operations at the tactical edge. Anne Marie Schumann, principal cyber advisor for the Department of the Navy, announced the initiative at the Billington Cybersecurity Summit, aiming to deliver robust cyberspace effects to forward-deployed Sailors and Marines.

This shift breaks from decades of centralized control by U.S. Cyber Command, aligning the Navy with broader Department of Defense doctrines that support expeditionary cyberspace operations across multiple military services. Tactical edge operations require specialized hardware to target systems disconnected from traditional networks, often leveraging the electromagnetic spectrum via radio waves. Empowering fleet-level commanders to execute non-kinetic strikes directly from vessels bypasses lengthy authorization chains, granting crucial operational flexibility in contested maritime environments.

Excerpts of Interview of retired PLA Lieutenant General Yin Fatang regarding 1962 India-China War

Newreckk

Retired PLA Lieutenant General Yin Fatang details the operational planning and command structures of the People's Liberation Army during the 1962 India-China War. The Tibet Military Region established the ad hoc 419 Unit comprising roughly 8,000 personnel across three infantry regiments to operate in the eastern sector. Strategic adjustments included transferring the 55th Division from Xining alongside specialized artillery, engineering, and communications detachments from interior military regions.

Liu Bocheng characterized Indian forward deployments along the road network as a vulnerable single-line serpent formation, prompting an operational directive to strike the head, cut the tail, strike the back, and open the belly. By August and September 1962, the 419 Unit conducted battalion- and regimental-scale live-fire exercises, supported by the integration of more than one hundred English, Hindi, and Tibetan translators transferred from the interior to prepare for active combat operations.

SELECTING THE RIGHT LEADER, NOT THE BEST LEADER

War Room | Clayton Manning

Selection panels across military and civilian institutions consistently mistake confidence for competence, rewarding polished performance over job-relevant evidence. Traditional selection processes favour abstract qualities like raw intellect and charisma, yet decades of industrial-organizational psychology demonstrate that structured interviews and behavioral assessment outperform unstructured expert intuition in predicting performance.

The U.S. Army tested this science through the Command Assessment Program, which evaluated thousands of battalion and brigade command candidates using multi-method behavioral assessments before its discontinuation in 2025. Although the program ran at scale, its failure to publish longitudinal validation evidence left it vulnerable to termination. Expanding structured, behaviorally anchored protocols to NCO promotion boards and senior flag officer selections can mitigate interpersonal and ethical failures. Institutionalizing empirical validation requirements ensures selection mechanisms remain defensible, shifting the focus from finding the best candidate on paper to matching the right leader to the operational context.

The Price of Arctic Ambition

Foreign Affairs | Iris Ferguson

Extreme environmental vulnerabilities in the Arctic continue to disrupt modern military operations and commercial maritime transit across fragile polar theaters. A 2016 ice fracture beneath the U.S. Navy's flagship exercise north of Prudhoe Bay forced an early evacuation, while an early freeze trapped commercial vessels in the East Siberian Sea in 2021.

Meanwhile, a 2025 Canadian-led multinational drill exposed severe equipment failures as extreme cold grounded helicopters and knocked out communications. These recurring operational failures demonstrate that unilateral ambitions cannot overcome extreme polar environments without deep allied cooperation and specialized infrastructure. Sustaining operations in the high north requires robust collective logistics and shared icebreaker assets to mitigate severe environmental friction.

The Army That Learns: The Russian General Staff and the Hidden War in Ukraine

Substack

Kautilya The Contemplator fails to load posts on Substack, resulting in an unresolved error message across the main archive and publication pages. The platform disruption prevents readers from accessing scheduled content or navigating foundational indexes tied to The Mandala Papers. Technical failures of this nature temporarily sever distribution channels for independent geopolitical and strategic commentary hosted on digital publishing networks.

Editorial operations dependent on continuous uptime face immediate operational friction when core infrastructure encounters unexpected retrieval errors. The publication maintains static copyright notices for 2026 alongside standard legal links while underlying repository connections remain unavailable. Further restoration depends on remote server recovery and successful database queries initiated by platform administrators.

India’s ‘PRAHAAR’ Doctrine Addresses Evolving Terrorist Threat Landscape

Jamestown Foundation | Animesh Roul

India unveiled its first comprehensive counter-terrorism doctrine, named 'PRAHAAR,' on February 23 to codify a decade-long transition from reactive crisis management toward preventive disruption across seven key pillars. The eight-page strategy identifies new technological vectors such as encrypted communications, cryptocurrency syndicates, drone logistics, and potential CBRNED material proliferation alongside traditional cross-border militancy.

Although the doctrine establishes robust frameworks for asset freezes and individual terrorist designations under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, it currently lacks detailed guidance on emerging threats like algorithmic radicalization, generative artificial intelligence propaganda, and calibrated military deterrence. The strategy formalizes a whole-of-society approach that integrates domestic intelligence-sharing networks, regional police operations, and international diplomatic campaigns. Despite these structural gaps, the framework provides a foundational baseline for anticipating, disrupting, and neutralizing decentralized terror ecosystems operating within and beyond the country's borders.

Tibet Response Tests Joint Command, Military–Civil Fusion

The Jamestown Foundation | Joshua Arostegui

The People’s Liberation Army Western Theater Command utilized the August 2026 Gyirong mudslides as an unscripted operational testbed, exercising direct joint control over Tibet Military District forces. Severe geographical and electromagnetic constraints in the Himalayan valleys required multi-service airspace deconfliction alongside an intelligentized command architecture integrating remote-sensing satellites and tactical unmanned aerial vehicles.

The mobilization validated Beijing’s wartime logistical template by deploying specialized state-owned enterprises for rapid route clearance while utilizing the People’s Armed Police to maintain command cohesion in a degraded battlespace. This rapid projection of a joint element within 48 hours demonstrates strategic mobility along the Line of Actual Control, though heavy reliance on civilian logistics assets reveals potential vulnerabilities during high-intensity conflict.

Inside China's mind on AI

Axios | Jim VandeHei

China is pursuing a state-directed artificial intelligence strategy focused on deep domestic adoption, contrasting sharply with America's emphasis on speed and raw super-intelligence development. The Chinese government aims to integrate AI across 90% of its economy by 2030 through its 15th Five-Year Plan, prioritizing social control and ideological security over fears of white-collar job displacement.

Underlying this aggressive push are severe domestic vulnerabilities, including a shrinking population that has fallen for four consecutive years, youth unemployment sitting at 19%, and inferior chip production capabilities compared to American hardware like Nvidia. Despite these hardware constraints, China maintains structural advantages in the physical inputs required for scaling technology, including abundant electricity generation, dominance over vital refining minerals, and extensive deployment of industrial robotics. Chinese open-source models such as Moonshot's Kimi K3, Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max, Zhipu's GLM-5.3, and DeepSeek V4 have become global standards for cost-effective development, though U.S. officials accuse labs of covertly using data distillation techniques.

How China plans to turn quantum into a future industry

Chinaquantumfo | Elias X. Huber

China is transitioning its quantum sector from foundational scientific research to industrialization and commercial market dominance under its 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations. The Chinese government has elevated quantum technology to the top position among future industries, shifting from a linear science-push model to a mission-driven approach focused on New Quality Productive Forces.

Local governments, particularly in Hefei, are deploying aggressive industrial policies—including dedicated Government Guidance Funds, tech parks, and the Quantum Information Thousand Scenarios Action—to integrate quantum computing, communication, and sensing applications across state-owned enterprises. This state-backed industrial push aims to build commercial application platforms, expand domestic market demand, and scale upstream and downstream supply chains. Consequently, Chinese quantum technologies are expected to systematically advance toward international export markets through Belt and Road Initiative partnerships, challenging Western isolation efforts.

As Xi Lands In Washington, Uyghurs And Tibetans Press Trump For Human Rights Showdown

Eurasia Review | Eugene Whong

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday for a three-day summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, as diaspora minority advocacy groups pressed for a human rights showdown over Xinjiang and Tibet. The World Uyghur Congress and the East Turkestan Government-in-Exile urged the administration to move beyond condemnation of the genocide designation first established in Trump's initial term.

Tibetan advocates and USCIRF Chair Asif Mahmood similarly demanded discussions on cultural erasure, political prisoners, and the 1995 disappearance of the Panchen Lama Gedhun Choekyi Nyima. The high-level visit breaks precedent by bypassing the White House for the tarmac arrival, reflecting mutual intent to stabilize relations. Both delegations intend to negotiate critical frictions regarding tariffs, soybean exports, supply chain security, artificial intelligence governance, and Taiwan arms sales while weighing an extension of last year's trade truce.

The U.S. Has More Leverage In Iraq Than Inks

Eurasia Review | James Durso

As U.S. forces prepare to leave Iraq by 30 September 2026, Washington must transition from military control to leveraging economic power, financial systems, and intelligence cooperation under the 2008 U.S.–Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement. Maintaining stability requires avoiding a forced ultimatum over Iran-aligned militias or an impossible choice between Washington and Tehran, drawing the line solely at parallel illicit military structures rather than trade or energy imports.

While Iraqi banks depend heavily on the international dollar system and U.S. financial restrictions demonstrated considerable sway in 2026, attempting to instantly disarm integrated political militias risks igniting civil conflict reminiscent of the 2003 army disbandment. The winning formula centers on U.S. withdrawal paired with Iraqi sovereignty, foreign direct investment, discreet financial leverage, and gradual, Iraqi-led militia reform rather than external coercion. Preserving long-term American influence in Baghdad ultimately requires accepting sovereign independence over direct intervention.

What Franklin Roosevelt Understood About Military Leadership

Real Clear Defense | Edward Farley Aldrich

The United States Army is losing its senior leadership amid high-level departures, raising critical questions about civilian oversight and military advice. Recent resignations and removals under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth highlight tensions over modernization and readiness that echo historical friction during wartime governance. Franklin D. Roosevelt successfully navigated such friction during World War II by deliberately selecting strong, independent advisers like Secretary of War Henry L.

Stimson and Army Chief of Staff George C. Marshall. Marshall famously disagreed with Roosevelt before a major decision in 1938 yet was still appointed chief of staff a year later, establishing a functional boundary of unvarnished counsel combined with absolute obedience after decisions were finalized. This historical partnership demonstrates that effective leadership requires presidents and civilian chiefs to welcome dissenting military judgment rather than cultivate deference. Fostering an environment where expert disagreement does not end careers remains vital for strategic success.

How Putin Escalates

Foreign Affairs | Andrei Kolesnikov

President Vladimir Putin secured a supermajority for the United Russia party in parliamentary elections through compulsory voting mechanisms, standardized military ballots, and the pre-election removal of the antiwar Yabloko party. These engineered electoral outcomes mark a new stage in Russia's confrontation with Ukraine and the West, institutionalizing tighter internal control.

The ruling party's dominance relies on bureaucratic compliance across budget-dependent organizations and corporations, ensuring political consolidation ahead of external escalation. Compulsory voting practices within law enforcement agencies and newly integrated territories reinforced the regime's grip on the legislative process. These controlled electoral dynamics reflect a systematic elimination of political opposition, cementing an authoritarian domestic architecture to sustain protracted conflict. The suppression of legal dissent demonstrates how domestic political sterilization directly underpins external aggression, leaving no viable institutional channels for opposition forces.

Russia Trying to Replace Starlink

The Jamestown Foundation | John C. K. Daly

Russia is accelerating the deployment of its Rassvet satellite constellation via Soyuz-2.1b rockets to replace Starlink terminals previously used for drone strikes and communications. Developed by Bureau 1440 under the Ministry of Digital Development, the low-orbit network requires hundreds of operational spacecraft by 2030 to secure military and civilian broadband coverage.

This indigenous program encounters severe industrial constraints and orbital failures, with initial deployment setbacks including inactive propulsion systems and reentered spacecraft. Ukraine is actively countering the initiative through diplomatic appeals to the International Telecommunication Union and military targeting of Russian space infrastructure. Meanwhile, military analysts debate the constellation's current operational impact on frontline reconnaissance and precision strike coordination. Bureau 1440 must execute numerous additional launches to achieve continuous orbital coverage across domestic and contested theaters.

U.S.-India Insight: India’s Trade Deals: Only a Starting Point to Progress

Csis | Richard M. Rossow

India has secured substantial nominal gains in bilateral goods trade following the implementation of economic agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates in 2022. Total annual goods trade between New Delhi and Canberra surged 76 percent to average $23 billion in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, while trade with Abu Dhabi climbed 81 percent to reach $100 billion annually over the same period.

Despite these impressive headline increases, neither partner has drastically altered India's aggregate trade basket, with Australia remaining stagnant at 2 percent and the United Arab Emirates shifting modestly from 7 to 8 percent. This marginal macro-level impact demonstrates that bilateral trade pacts fail to generate immediate structural shifts without concurrent domestic economic restructuring. Production Linked Incentive schemes and trade pacts must be underpinned by difficult structural reforms in land, labor, power, water, and judicial remediation to boost manufacturing competitiveness beyond its long-standing 13 to 15 percent share of gross domestic product.

OpenAI gives cyber defence tools to Ukraine

Bbc | Zoe Kleinman

OpenAI will share its Daybreak AI cyber defence system for free with the Ukraine government to protect civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and power plants, from cyber-attacks. Under the agreement, Ukraine will receive access to OpenAI's GPT 5.6 Sol model as it counters nearly 6,000 cyber-attacks recorded in 2025 by CERT-UA.

Russian offensive cyber operations have been a key component of Moscow's aggression since 2014, prompting tech firms to supply defensive tools while gathering valuable conflict data. Analysts note that frontier AI models possess dual-use capabilities, serving defenders while simultaneously posing risks when exploited by malicious actors for reconnaissance and infrastructure infiltration. Meanwhile, tech executives gathered at the UN General Assembly amid growing warnings from industry leaders regarding the rapid proliferation of autonomous cyber threats.

The War Of Endurance: Russia, Ukraine, And The Struggle Behind The Front Lines

Eurasia Review | Philip Wasielewski

The Russo-Ukrainian War has evolved into a war of attrition where both sides target each other's societies and economies after front-line military operations reached a deadlock. Ukraine faces severe economic strain, a 20 percent drop in GDP, blocked Black Sea ports, and political instability over mobilization, corruption, and leadership disputes.

Despite these internal challenges, Kyiv is sustained by extensive Western financial aid and a rapidly expanding domestic defense industrial base. Meanwhile, Russia maintains maximalist war aims, absorbing heavy monthly casualties of 30,000 to 35,000 personnel while suffering under a sustained Ukrainian drone and missile campaign against its energy refineries and retail infrastructure. With neither side willing to capitulate and public polling showing that 61 percent of Ukrainians remain prepared to fight indefinitely, the conflict now depends on which nation's economy, military, or societal will collapses first.

Hunger on the Horizon: The New Black Sea Grain Crisis

Cfr | Samuel Henry Lazarus

The Russia-Ukraine war re-erupted along its southern maritime axis in July 2026, shattering a three-year détente in the Black Sea and shuttering ports on the eve of harvest season. Strikes have since kept the world’s most important grain chokepoint closed, disrupting the export of 17 percent of the world’s traded grain.

Parallel Russian and Ukrainian strikes targeting Black Sea ports are rapidly destroying and idling agricultural export capacity much faster than it can be restored or rerouted. This mutual blockade coincides with global agricultural shocks, including a super El Niño and reduced harvests in the United States, driving wheat prices to nearly $8 per bushel. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry recorded 124 Russian attacks on Greater Odesa ports in July alone, while Russian ports like Novorossiysk faced crippling drone and missile assaults from Ukraine. These military escalations threaten acute global food insecurity and widespread economic contraction.

Israel At The Crossroads: The October 27, 2026 Election And The Contest For The Post-Netanyahu Order – Analysis

Eurasiareview | Dr. Mohamed Chtatou

Israel will hold its first on-time Knesset election since 1988 on October 27, 2026, following the Gaza war, the Lebanon conflict, and the 2026 war with Iran. The vote acts as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu’s sixteen-year political dominance, accountability for the October 7 security failures, and the stability of a fragmented thirty-eight-party system.

September polls show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading Likud, while the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs remain tightly contested around fifty-two to fifty-four seats each. Kingmakers such as Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and right-wing threshold risks will determine the outcome amid Haredi conscription disputes, far-right divisions, and a recent Haaretz report alleging a pre-attack UAE warning that Netanyahu’s office denies. Whoever wins will face a heavy national debt, a large defense budget, strained U.S.-Israel relations, and a stalled normalization track tied to a Palestinian horizon the incumbent rejects.

Netanyahu’s greatest illusion: That Israel’s security depends on him

Jerusalem Post | Yonatan Touval

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an upcoming October 27 election with current polls leaving his governing bloc short of a parliamentary majority. For four decades, Netanyahu has built his political career around claims of indispensability, portraying himself as uniquely qualified to manage external threats like Iran while suppressing internal party rivals.

The October 7 massacre shattered his core security promise, yet successive security emergencies and ongoing regional conflict have been repurposed to postpone accountability and sustain his grip on power. While his campaigns continue to weaponize foreign hostility as a qualification for office, his international standing has narrowed amid an ICC arrest warrant and diplomatic walkouts at the United Nations. The central illusion of his tenure remains the unproven premise that Israel's national survival depends exclusively on his continued political leadership.

Technological Leapfrogging in the AI Age

Project Syndicate | Mark-Alexandre Doumba

African economies have increasingly relied on past success stories to assume that developing nations can bypass expensive infrastructure stages by adopting foreign technologies. This assumption requires rigorous scrutiny when applied directly to imported artificial intelligence systems. Policymakers face distinct structural hurdles in transforming countries from passive technology consumers into active producers.

The mobile-money revolution offers critical historical lessons for assessing whether similar shortcuts work in the current technological era. Developing nations confront deep infrastructural and capital deficits that complicate straightforward adoption models. Sustainable digital transformation demands domestic capacity building rather than mere reliance on external innovations. Regional leaders must evaluate these limitations carefully before committing national resources to imported foundational systems.

What Trump Said at the UN Was Important. What He Didn’t Was Important, Too.

Cfr | Esther Brimmer

U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the United Nations General Assembly for the fifth time, delivering a speech notable for its omissions regarding international cooperation and multilateral development institutions. The administration recently paid $725 million in overdue regular dues and $102 million for peacekeeping, avoiding a General Assembly vote loss, though $4.2

billion remains owed. Against this backdrop, the United States continues to prioritize peace and security frameworks while simultaneously dismissing development assistance, humanitarian response, and regulatory bodies like the World Health Organization and the International Maritime Organization. The Trump administration previously withdrew from the World Health Organization and the UN Human Rights Council while shuttering the U.S. Agency for International Development. Future engagement requires navigating deep Sino-American rivalries and financial strain while recognizing that a restructured United Nations framework remains essential for global governance.

The Guardian view on the future of the UN: more embattled, but more necessary, than ever

The Guardian

The United Nations faces unprecedented institutional strain as outgoing Secretary General António Guterres prepares to step down by 31 December amid rising global conflicts and a deadlocked security council. Donald Trump used his general assembly address to threaten Iran and dismiss international law regarding Venezuela, echoing broader boycotts by leaders including Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi.

Amid these diplomatic fractures and funding deficits, the organization remains a vital forum for smaller states to coordinate multilateral campaigns on climate and security reform. Potential successors like Rebeca Grynspan and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett face an uncertain leadership transition as major powers bide their time. The charter's founding mission to prevent global war endures not through flawless execution, but because the alternative remains far worse.

Drone and Data Center Lessons from the Donbas to the Gulf

National Interest | Henry Rogers

American data centers face escalating physical vulnerabilities as adversaries ingest the lessons of recent drone warfare operations in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf. In the summer of 2026, Ukrainian strikes against commercial giants like Wildberries and Iranian drone attacks disrupting Amazon Web Services facilities demonstrated how low-cost unmanned aerial systems can cripple critical economic nodes.

Because rapid digitization and artificial intelligence demands have driven operators to cluster these facilities in massive, interconnected campuses across Northern Virginia, Atlanta, Santa Clara, and Dallas, they represent concentrated targets vulnerable to coordinated kinetic disruption. Despite the availability of anti-drone sensors and jamming systems, federal regulations severely complicate protective measures. Under Federal Aviation Administration rules, the airspace above private data center campuses remains public domain, rendering it illegal for facility owners to shoot down or interfere with incoming aerial threats. Policymakers must reform these airspace barriers to allow civilian investment in site-defense infrastructure before overseas vulnerabilities replicate domestically.

Palantir, NATO and the Privatisation of Decision Infrastructure

Victoria Calotychos

NATO finalised the acquisition of the Maven Smart System for Allied Command Operations on 25 March 2025, deploying it across headquarters and exercise planning by 2026. This integration highlights a growing institutional challenge where external commercial platforms organise operational data and decision workflows, creating a dependency known as decision sovereignty.

While formal command authority remains with sovereign states, reliance on proprietary architectures for situational awareness and planning can lead to cumulative institutional lock-in. European firms contribute specialized capabilities like drones and simulations, yet these components operate within a foreign-controlled integration layer. As European nations accelerate defense spending amid compressed threat timelines, rapid procurement practices risk entrenching external control over critical digital infrastructure, decoupling formal ownership from practical governance.

The Nuclear AI Red Line: Prediction Is Not Permission

Eurasia Review | Burak Oktenli

Military artificial intelligence must maintain strict engineering boundaries that permanently separate machine prediction from human authorization in nuclear command systems. Although recent security dialogues between United States and Chinese experts at the Brookings Institution and Tsinghua University highlight the urgency of bilateral red lines, software anticipation of human behavior must never substitute for lawful command.

Experimental models such as Centaur illustrate that cognitive software can forecast human choices, while studies in Nature Human Behaviour and Anthropic's agentic-misalignment research demonstrate vulnerabilities to AI persuasion and deceptive behaviors. Consequently, four distinct functions—predicting, recommending, authenticating, and authorizing—must remain isolated to prevent automated systems from misinterpreting delays or forecasts as operational consent. Safeguards should enforce fresh, positive human acts of authorization and guarantee evidence independence across all reporting channels during high-stakes strategic exercises.

Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium

Csis | Michael Ratney

Saudi Arabia confronts a volatile era of disequilibrium as ongoing regional conflicts and oil volatility threaten its ambitious economic and societal transformation. Driven by young leadership, the kingdom previously leveraged multipolarity and de-escalation to insulate itself from regional turmoil, but escalating wars involving Iran, the Houthis, and shifting U.S.

and Israeli policies have exposed critical vulnerabilities. Destructive attacks on strategic energy infrastructure in the Eastern Province and maritime choke points like the Bab al-Mandab Strait demonstrate the limits of traditional air defenses against asymmetric drone threats. Domestically, the government faces pressure to maintain economic momentum and job creation for a young demographic under 35 to prevent stagnation. To protect its national transformation, Riyadh continues to prioritize diplomatic de-escalation across volatile flashpoints while accelerating investments in renewable energy and alternative export routes designed to mitigate reliance on vulnerable transit corridors.

NATO’s Arctic Surveillance Claims

Geopoliticalmonitor | Meng Kit Tang

Norwegian defense minister Tore O. Sandvik asserted that NATO maintains continuous tracking of Russian submarines exiting the Kola Peninsula, contrasting with cautious statements from Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe spokesperson Col. Martin O’Donnell regarding deep-Atlantic tracking difficulties. This friction highlights the broader challenge of monitoring strategic chokepoints like the Bear Gap.

Allied forces intercepted a Russian Akula-class submarine and GUGI deep-sea submersibles near British infrastructure in April, though full details emerged months later via Reuters. Meanwhile, two undersea cables serving Norway remain severed without formal attribution since January 2022 and April 2024, complicating assessments of subsea vulnerability alongside rising Chinese commercial interest in the Northern Sea Route. Norway plans a new fiber-optic cable to Svalbard by 2028, testing seabed infrastructure security. NATO possesses proven detection capabilities but lacks public proof of continuous custody into the deep Atlantic.

Why the Attack Helicopter is still relevant

The Atlantic Passage

The Atlantic Passage, a Substack publication focusing on geopolitics and military history, returned a "Page not found" error on its hosting platform, failing to load any active posts or articles. This technical disruption prevents access to the site's planned editorial content regarding international conflicts and regional security. The platform's interface still displays navigation menus for thematic sections such as "Ukraine and the War," "Israel, the Middle East," "Conflict in Detail," and "The Big Picture."

These categories indicate the publication's intended focus on contemporary global flashpoints and strategic defense issues. Additionally, the page features standard Substack infrastructure, including subscription prompts, sign-in options, and links to the platform's notes and chat functions. Despite these structural elements, the central repository remains entirely empty, showing only a copyright date of 2026 and a notice that posts failed to load. No articles are currently accessible. Consequently, specific strategic analysis and author contributions remain unavailable on this URL.

Little Venice, Little Sparta: The UAE’s Statecraft Meets The War On Iran

Eurasia Review | Cinzia Bianco

The United Arab Emirates leverages its immense oil wealth, sovereign funds, and strategic position as "Little Venice" and "Little Sparta" to project global influence through commercial connectivity and muscular security. This model faced an existential stress test during the 2026 United States and Israel war with Iran, which shattered the assumption that commercial entanglement with Tehran under an American security umbrella would insulate the state.

Iranian retaliatory strikes targeted airports, ports, data centers, and energy infrastructure to punish the Emirati economy while Washington fought. Concurrently, an open strategic rupture hardened with Saudi Arabia over regional leadership, economic visions, and Red Sea footholds. Despite sustaining over 3,000 projectiles and an August 18 trade freeze, Abu Dhabi is accelerating a "fortified connectivity" framework—building spare supply routes, domestic defense manufacturing, and alternative terminals. Europe can leverage this post-war environment by offering regulatory predictability, protecting vital trade infrastructure, and establishing clear boundaries against militia-tied networks.

When A Paper Tiger Crumbles: The Inevitable Collapse of Bangladesh

Substack | Ashok Awasthi

Post-Hasina Bangladesh faces severe economic instability following efforts by its new leadership to de-link from India by repudiating long-standing power and cargo facilities. An analysis by Viprabuddhi highlights how the nation’s heavy historical over-reliance on the garment sector leaves its fragile economy highly vulnerable as cross-border diplomatic ties rapidly deteriorate.

Lapsing bilateral agreements like the historic Ganga water treaty and attempts to pivot toward Pakistan and China threaten long-term regional stability. Recent Adani Power supply disruptions and constrained access to Indian transit ports for cheap cotton imports further compound Dhaka's compounding economic quagmire. Domestic volatility remains high. The rising influence of virulent Islamist political factions is actively alienating religious minorities and deterring critical private investment. Furthermore, tentative moves to grant operational airfields near the strategic Siliguri Corridor to Beijing risk triggering severe geopolitical backlash from New Delhi. Without rebuilding crucial economic and diplomatic bridges with India, Bangladesh's prospects for sustainable economic recovery remain entirely remote.

Two Nuclear Neighbors Are About to Arm Opposite Sides in Yemen. Here Is Why India Backs the Houthis.

Signal, Not Noise | AJ

Pakistan is steadily moving toward direct military involvement in Yemen under the Mecca Mutual Defence Pact signed in August 2026 with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with manufacturing outputs for Toyota Hilux pickup trucks surging as an indicator of preparations. Islamabad's prospective entry into the regional conflict triggers an immediate strategic realignment for India, which prioritizes the containment and exhaustion of its primary adversary above all other foreign policy preferences.

New Delhi stands to benefit directly from any depletion of Pakistani military resources, personnel, and command attention in a distant theater, reducing pressure along the disputed frontier. Consequently, India's rational imperative shifts toward quietly sustaining the Ansarallah Houthis through intelligence sharing and operational expertise derived from decades of direct conflict. This covert backing bypasses standard diplomatic alignments with Israel and Iran, transforming the Houthis into an asymmetric proxy asset capable of bleeding Pakistan far from Kashmir.

FACT SHEET ON CHINA-MYANMAR-BANGLADESH ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Wilhelm Geijer, Joel von Rothkirch, Hoang An Nguyen, Jagannath Panda

China has undertaken several strategic projects to increase its role in the Bay of Bengal region and circumvent the Malacca Strait through the Belt and Road Initiative. These efforts involve substantial investments in port infrastructure and multiple new economic corridors designed to expand Beijing's regional power architecture. One of these vital initiatives is the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar Economic Corridor, which subsequently evolved into the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor following Indian disengagement from the cooperative framework.

This evolving economic infrastructure forms a core component of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs research project examining Beijing's expanding power projection across South Asia and the broader Indian Ocean region. These developments directly alter regional connectivity patterns and reshape long-term geopolitical alignments along critical maritime corridors.

Strait up tolls? What a Hormuz precedent means for the world’s waterways

Australian Strategic Policy Institute | Elizabeth Buchanan, Adel Abdel Ghafar

The US–Iran War has triggered negotiations to keep the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, raising concerns that a potential transit fee could establish a dangerous global precedent. This development threatens to disrupt international maritime trade norms and directly impact Australian supply chains. Consequently, regional waterways face unprecedented economic and strategic pressures.

Historically, the dissolution of agreed international laws and maritime principles has accelerated the erosion of free passage. If a Hormuz toll is implemented, it could legitimise similar transit fees in other critical choke points. These include the Malacca Strait, the South China Sea, and the Bering Strait. Global trade faces fragmentation. Such a shift would allow coastal states to monetise sovereign access, fundamentally altering the economics of global shipping. Ultimately, this precedent risks transforming open maritime commons into contested, revenue-generating zones, complicating naval operations, energy security, and resource supply chains worldwide.

How China’s Leader Plans to Win the Future With A.I.

The New York Times | Vivian Wang

Chinese President Xi Jinping is mobilizing state resources to dominate global artificial intelligence development and restructure the domestic economy through advanced robotics and high-end manufacturing. State-led funds poured over $184 billion into Chinese A.I. firms between 2000 and 2023, with government and state-owned banks pledging hundreds of billions more.

Beijing seeks to offset lower private investment compared to the United States, which saw private sources pour $285 billion into the technology in 2025 alone. A dedicated technology park outside Beijing exemplifies this top-down approach, providing tens of millions of dollars in free computing power to local developers. Supported firms produce critical dual-use technologies, including specialized chips designed for nuclear missiles and medical brain implants. Beijing prioritizes state-directed industrial policy. By leveraging centralized resource allocation, China aims to establish artificial intelligence as a lead driver of national competitiveness while maintaining strict administrative and social control over emerging technological capabilities across society.