On June 13, Israel initiated a series of airstrikes and covert operations against Iranian nuclear sites and military officials. Dubbed Operation Rising Lion, this sophisticated and multilayered campaign followed days of speculation about an impending assault. So far, the attacks have damaged Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities and killed a number of Iranian scientists. They have also claimed the lives of scores of civilians and injured dozens more, razed apartment buildings, and blown up parts of the country’s energy infrastructure. Israelis, meanwhile, have found themselves rushing to shelters as their own cities come under attack.
Right now, there is no indication that the fighting will stop. Both Iran and Israel have signaled that they are willing to keep striking each other. Israel’s defense minister even promised that “Tehran will burn” if the attacks don’t end. The United States, meanwhile, has done little to stop the bloodshed. Instead, U.S. President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals about whether he wants the fighting to cease. His administration has positioned military assets in the area, and according to multiple news reports, U.S. forces are helping Israel shoot down Iranian drones and missiles.
Despite his equivocations, however, Trump has said he still wants to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran has left the door open to talks—provided that Israel lets up. The U.S. administration, then, may still have space to forge an agreement.
If Trump wants to avoid a U.S. war with Iran, he should seize it. So far, Israel has inflicted significant but not total damage on Iran’s nuclear program. Even if the fighting drags on, it is unlikely to succeed at wiping out all of it. Elements of Iran’s nuclear program are deeply buried underground, including at the Fordow enrichment site, and the country’s leadership may now have more of an incentive than ever to build the ultimate deterrent. That means if the fighting stops without a deal,
Tehran could well make a run for a nuclear weapon that only heavy bunker-busting American bombs can seriously delay, at least in the near term. Even then, to truly assure that the threat has been curtailed, the United States would need either a presence on the ground or sustained rounds of military strikes carried out with exhaustive knowledge of Iran’s nuclear operations.
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