The first hundred days of Donald Trump’s second presidency have turned out worse for Europeans than expected. In addition to Vice President JD Vance’s ideological crusade against European liberals, there are fears that the United States will abandon Ukraine and frustration and concern over Trump’s initiation of unprecedented tariffs on European countries. In the wake of these disruptions, it is not surprising that the gaze of some European politicians has wistfully turned toward China,
which is perceived by some as a potential hedge against an unpredictable United States. Brussels, for example, recently started negotiations with Beijing on reducing European tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China lowering its tariffs on European goods and lifting export restrictions on rare-earth elements. And after Chinese leader Xi Jinping declined to travel to Europe for a 50th anniversary summit on EU-Chinese ties, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, skeptical yet pragmatic in dealing with China, announced she will travel to Beijing in late July.
Beijing, meanwhile, is playing its cards well and positioning itself as a more reasonable and cooperative great power than Washington. This is a change from Trump’s first term, when China overplayed its hand and embraced an aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy that backfired. Now, not a day passes in which Chinese officials do not underscore how they share their European counterparts’ desire to protect
the multilateral trading system from Trump’s disruptions. Xi, for instance, has noted that China and Europe are “two major forces for building a multipolar world, two major markets supporting globalization, and two major civilizations championing diversity.” China has even proposed reviving the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which was put on ice in 2021 after Beijing sanctioned several members of the European Parliament who were critical of China.
If implemented, the CAI would replace the bilateral treaties that regulate how Chinese investors are treated in European countries and help create a level playing field for European businesses in China.
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