Barely a week into Israel’s large-scale military campaign against Iran, the prospects for a diplomatic resolution are rapidly vanishing — if they have not already. What began as an effort to halt Iran’s nuclear program has morphed into a broader Israeli campaign aimed at degrading the regime’s security, economic, and political infrastructure in order to enable or encourage regime change.
This evolving confrontation places the Islamic Republic of Iran at a critical inflection point. Tehran faces choices that range from limited negotiation and strategic restraint to escalation and eventual collapse. The following analysis explores the key scenarios that could unfold in the coming days, weeks, and years.
I. A vanishing diplomatic off-ramp
Theoretically, a negotiated de-escalation is still possible. But the political and strategic costs for Tehran would be staggering. To satisfy President Donald Trump — and the new negotiator at the table, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — Tehran would likely have to offer: complete cessation of uranium enrichment down to zero; full dismantlement of enrichment infrastructure, including Fordow and Natanz, under stringent inspections led by the United States; and sharp reductions in its ballistic missile arsenal and manufacturing capacities, and maybe in its drone arsenal and factories as well. In addition, Israel would insist on the dismantling or disbanding of regional militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
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