29 June 2025

Trump takes Middle East ceasefire to trade war strategy

Ben Lefebvre, Phelim Kine, Megan Messerly and Daniel Desrochers

Trump took to his Truth Social account Tuesday to sell a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran as a boon not just for stability in the region but also for China amid ongoing trade talks with the country. The post highlights Trump’s desire for a more even trade balance with China and his belief that the U.S.’s role as a world peacekeeper merits compensation, a point he has emphasized to allies across the globe.

“China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran,” Trump wrote. “Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!”

Trump’s post underscores the expansive view that the president has taken of trade negotiations that are underway with dozens of trading partners ahead of a July 8 self-imposed deadline. China faces a separate, later deadline in August after the two countries agreed to lower trade tensions last month.

The president has, among other things, used the talks to push for increased defense spending by Japan and shelving antitrust legislation in South Korea that could target U.S. tech companies. And he continues to fixate on China upping its purchases of American products, after a deal with Beijing in his first term yielded little progress.

Trump’s post implicitly referenced the threat by Iran’s parliament Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. attacks on Tehran’s nuclear sites over the weekend. Hormuz is key to the global economy, with more than 20 percent of the world’s oil supply and much of its liquified gas from countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates passing through the strait.

Still, even if a ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, and negotiations between the United States and China continue, industry experts are skeptical that it will persuade China to increase its purchases of American oil or show any overt gratitude toward the president for brokering a fragile ceasefire.

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