Paul Goble
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in part to shore up and expand Moscow’s unchallenged dominance of the former Soviet space. The relative success of Ukrainian resistance and the impact of Putin’s war against Ukraine on Russian actions elsewhere produced the opposite effect,
alienating many of the former Soviet republics from Russia and leading them to pursue more independent foreign policies to protect themselves from Russian aggression and international isolation.
Putin’s hope that his full-scale invasion would weaken the West and restore Russia’s dominance over the former Soviet republics may have been realized if the war had ended rapidly and decisively. Instead,
Ukraine’s determined resistance, international support for the Ukrainian military, and diplomatic deadlock have meant the war has gone on for more than three years, undermining Russia’s relationships with the West and its position across the former Soviet space (see Strategic Snapshot, February 24).
Leaders of the former Soviet republics appear to be realizing that the Russian military is not all-powerful. Moscow’s arrogant responses to such moves, despite its demonstrated lack of military dominance, however, are poisoning ties between Moscow and even countries that had not previously broken with the Kremlin.
Outside powers have had greater opportunities to expand their influence as Moscow’s wanes, cementing the Kremlin’s reduced position (see EDM, November 1, 2022, July 31, August 10, October 3, November 6, 2023, July 8, September 12, 2024). Russia is unlikely to recover that power unless Moscow changes its attitudes and approach, something that is unlikely as long as Putin is in power.
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