6 July 2025

The New Great Game: Sino-American strategic competition in Pakistan


The intensification of great power competition in the 21st century has transformed Pakistan from a peripheral actor into a central prize in the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. This "New Great Game" represents a contemporary iteration of classical geopolitical competition, wherein major powers vie for influence over strategically located middle powers.

Pakistan's unique position—as the sole Muslim nuclear power, a gateway to Central Asia, and a critical node in China's Belt and Road Initiative—has made it an indispensable asset for both Beijing and Washington in their broader competition for global influence.

Pakistan's strategic value derives not merely from its geographical location, but from its ability to serve multiple functions simultaneously: as China's corridor to the Arabian Sea, America's security lever in South Asia, and a potential source of critical minerals essential to modern warfare and technology. The recent Chinese loan rollover of $3.4 billion and President Trump's hosting of Pakistan's Army Chief at the White House exemplify the heightened attention both superpowers are directing towards Islamabad.

China's strategic approach: The CPEC paradigm

China's engagement with Pakistan represents a long-term strategic investment designed to address fundamental vulnerabilities in Beijing's global position. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), launched in 2013 with over $62 billion in committed investments, serves as the flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia. However, CPEC's significance extends far beyond infrastructure development.

The development of Gwadar Port, situated at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, constitutes China's most significant strategic asset in the region. This deep-water port provides Beijing with direct access to energy-rich West Asia whilst circumventing the vulnerable Malacca Strait, through which approximately 80% of China's oil imports currently transit. The recent $3.4 billion loan rollover—comprising $2.1 billion in reserve deposits and $1.3 billion in refinancing—demonstrates China's commitment to maintaining this strategic relationship regardless of Pakistan's economic difficulties.

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