Mark F. Cancian
Since 2022, China has conducted numerous military drills and exercises simulating blockades of the island of Taiwan, a democracy of 23 million that sits astride one of the world’s maritime chokepoints. What would happen if China initiated a blockade of Taiwan in the coming years? To understand the military challenges in countering a blockade, CSIS ran 26 wargames using a wide variety of scenarios.
Although China could inflict serious hardships, particularly by targeting Taiwan’s energy sector, this wouldn’t be a low-risk, low-cost option for Beijing. Any blockade creates escalatory pressures that are difficult to contain and could lead to a large-scale war. Building on existing preparations, Taiwan and the United States could strengthen deterrence by demonstrating that a blockade is not feasible.
The year is 2028. Xi Jinping decides, whether because of a long-held plan, internal pressures, or some provocative act by Taiwan, that China needs to apply coercive leverage against Taiwan to change the status quo. He turns to his advisers for options. There are purely economic measures, such as sanctions, but their effects are unreliable and work slowly. In the military sphere, the most dangerous course of action would be invasion: It promises a decisive resolution but risks dramatic defeat.
Another alternative, which Xi ultimately decides on, is a blockade in which China attempts to stop shipping headed for Taiwan. Xi orders the China Coast Guard and People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia to positions around Taiwan, claiming that this is an internal law enforcement matter. After China boards and seizes several ships, commercial traffic to Taiwan ceases. The action disrupts international trade and the world economy. Taiwan rejects China’s legal arguments and decides to resist.
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