The United States won’t be able to solve the fentanyl crisis without help from its greatest rival. China is the world’s largest supplier of the chemicals that drug smugglers use to produce the opioid, and the country’s regulators have proved that they can stem its spread on the black market—when they’re so inclined. But despite pressure from Washington, Chinese leaders have not done nearly as much as they could to crack down on the illicit-fentanyl trade. For Beijing, the opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans every year is a source of political leverage that it won’t easily give up.
Chinese officials still decry the opium crisis that foreign traders seeded two centuries ago. The country’s long memory informs the regime’s regulation of domestic drug dealing and use, which it polices and prosecutes severely. But Beijing denies its role in the drug trade beyond its borders. As a spokesperson for the foreign ministry said in May, “Fentanyl is the U.S.’s problem, not China’s.”Now, President Donald Trump is making a renewed effort to hold China accountable.
Earlier this year, he imposed tariffs in retaliation for the country’s refusal to act firmly to rein in the trade. At least for now, Beijing appears willing to strengthen controls. In late June, regulators announced new restrictions on two chemicals used in fentanyl production. But China’s record of cooperation has been erratic, fluctuating from moment to moment depending on the state of U.S.-China relations. And any further assistance likely won’t come cheap. Chinese leaders are well aware that fentanyl is a bigger problem for the United States than it is for China. Before entering any new agreement, they will withhold “cooperation as a piece of leverage” until they can extract “certain guarantees or the right price.
Amanda Hsiao, a director in the China practice at the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told me. In his first term, Trump had some success with getting Beijing to acquiesce. At the start of the fentanyl crisis, more than a decade ago, China was a major source of the finished drug entering the American black market. Then, in 2018, Trump imposed his first round of tariffs and threatened future ones, which probably influenced China’s decision the following year to restrict the production and export of fentanyl. The step effectively eradicated the import of Chinese-made fentanyl into the U.S., and showed that Beijing can suppress the illicit trade when it wants to.
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