On 3 July 2025, Russia became the first country to formally recognise the Taliban regime as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, nearly four years after its forcible return to power. This was officially announced after the Taliban acting Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi received credentials from Russian Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov in Kabul. The Taliban flag was raised for the first time at the Embassy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) in Moscow. This was a severe blow to Western-led efforts over the past four years to develop an informal international consensus to prevent the unconditional legitimisation of the Taliban regime. Although this is unlikely to have a global domino effect, the recent sharp increase in the Taliban’s regional interactions is likely to lead to its diplomatic recognition by certain neighbouring countries.
Russia’s decision, criticised by Afghan civil rights groups – especially women’s rights activists based abroad – as legitimising an authoritarian and misogynistic regime, was due to a combination of factors. Its timing was likely related to severely degraded Russian influence in the region following the military involvement of the United States in the recent Israel-Iran conflict along with the earlier ouster of Russia’s long-standing ally, the Assad regime in Syria, combined with Western diplomatic recognition of Syria’s new leadership.
Recognition of the IEA could serve to recover some of Russia’s regional influence and strengthen its counter-terrorism strategy against the Islamic State-Khorasan Province terror group by encouraging the Taliban to switch back to using Russian arms along with Russian anti-narcotic efforts. It would also serve to expand commercial and economic cooperation in energy, transportation, agriculture and infrastructure. In April 2025, Russia’s Supreme Court suspended its ban on the Taliban, which it had designated ‘a terrorist organisation’ for over than 20 years.
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