From Scam Centers to Scam State: The Road to Myanmar’s Scam Election

Tun Aung Shwe

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Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has entered a new phase of civil war marked by unprecedented territorial losses for the Myanmar military council and visible strains on manpower and institutional cohesion. In this weaker position, the military has leaned more heavily on allied militias – most prominently the Border Guard Force (BGF) (rebranded locally as the Karen National Army, KNA) and the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) in Karen State and, in other theaters, the Pa-O National Army (PNA), Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), and Pyusawhti auxiliaries.

The political economy that follows from these partnerships has coincided with Myanmar overtaking regional peers as the principal hub for industrial-scale scam centers.

A newly released report indicates that since 2021, clusters of compounds along the Thai-Myanmar frontier, particularly near Myawaddy in Karen State, have more than doubled in number, with their footprint expanding at an estimated rate of 13.5 acres per month. Highly securitized complexes such as KK Park and Shwe Kokko function as “company towns,” with fenced perimeters, guard posts, dormitories, and on-site logistics, supported by river crossings, warehousing on the Thai side, generators, and broad adoption of satellite internet.

Prior to the coup, the center of gravity sat on the China-Myanmar border under the Myanmar military-aligned Kokang Border Guard Force. The Operation 1027 offensives and subsequent Chinese pressure disrupted that northern ecosystem in late 2023, pushing syndicates and militia partners south rather than shutting them down. In short, pressure displaced the model, but did not dismantle it.

Three dynamics explain the expansion. The first is fragmented security and protection rents. In areas where the state lacks territorial depth, allied militias broker “order” locally. Operators obtain access to land, power, and connectivity; militias monetize protection via rents, taxation, and service provision. This gives scam operations the ability to flee crackdowns in one district by relocating to another.