Andrew Korybko
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have announced a new mutual defense pact that is long on symbolism and short on substance. Image: X Screengrab
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA), which, according to a joint statement, “aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression.”
The agreement goes on to state that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” It doesn’t specify any duty to employ military force in their support, however, thus making it similar to NATO’s Article 5 in terms of strategic ambiguity.
Many observers believe that US ally Saudi Arabia was shaken by America’s inability or refusal to stop Israel’s bombing of Hamas targets in Qatar, despite hosting a major US airbase there.
Saudi Arabia is thus supposedly trying to deter Israel via closer ties with nuclear-armed Pakistan, a longtime military partner it has financially bailed out several times in the past.
The apparent quid pro quo is that Saudi Arabia would support Pakistan in any future clash with India, potentially by cutting off oil shipments until hostilities cease.
That’s a compelling explanation of their interests in the SMDA, but equally compelling is the argument that it’s mostly symbolic for soft power’s sake and thus not the game-changer many believe it could be.
For starters, aside from occasional fiery rhetoric, Pakistan has never credibly threatened Israel. It hasn’t used nuclear weapons even in conflicts with its nuclear-armed rival India — which it views as an existential threat — so it’s unlikely to do so against nuclear-armed Israel, even in a scenario where Israel bombs Saudi Arabia.
On that point, Israel and Saudi Arabia are actually quite close, despite their disagreements over Palestine. Unlike Qatar, Saudi Arabia doesn’t host any Israeli-designated terrorist groups.
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