Hugh De Santis
An independent European security structure may be difficult establish, but there is no other alternative to deter Russia.
Europe is at an inflection point. Whether Donald Trump coerces President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept a peace deal favorable to Russia or walks away from the conflict altogether, European leaders can no longer count on the United States to be their security guarantor. They can continue to flatter Trump and lobby congressional leaders in the hope that security ties will not be severed. Or they can plan to defend themselves against a militant Russia without the American backstop.
The transatlantic relationship, which has underpinned global stability since 1949, has frayed on trade and security grounds. To placate Trump and sustain America’s presence in Europe, the European Union acceded to a one-sided trade agreement with the United States in July. The agreement caps tariffs on most EU exports to the United States at 15 percent tariffs, a figure far higher than the current 1.5 percent, in exchange for the elimination of tariffs on US industrial goods and preferential market access for agricultural products. French prime minister Francois Bayrou called it an act of “submission.” To secure Trump’s commitment to NATO’s collective security, the European allies agreed a month earlier at a summit meeting in The Hague to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035.
Given Trump’s unpredictability, however, the European allies cannot be certain that the president’s trade and fiscal demands will not change. True, Trump has approved new arms transfers to Ukraine paid for by the European allies, and he has been angered by Russia’s relentless bombardment of cities, such as the August 29 strike on Kyiv. However, given the view of the Trump administration and much of the public that China poses a greater threat, it would be foolhardy to conclude that such aid signals a sustained willingness to defend Ukraine or its European allies.
The president displayed his striking inconstancy at the August 15 summit in Alaska with President Vladimir Putin. Neither his earlier demand for a ceasefire nor his warning to Russia of “severe consequences” if it failed to do so was achieved. Nor did the summit result in the security guarantees for Ukraine that European leaders had called for.
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