Charlie Edwards
The recent drone incursion into Poland represented a significant escalation in Russia’s unconventional war on Europe. On 9 and 10 September, a swarm of approximately 24 Russian drones launched from four different Russian sites and entered Polish airspace. The drones were made of plywood and Styrofoam and are estimated to have cost €10,000 (approximately US$11,800) each. Several drones were shot down, some crashed, while a number travelled hundreds of kilometres deep into Poland. At least five of the drones’ flight paths indicated they were headed towards Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, a key NATO logistics hub – an act of deliberate intimidation. The incursion occurred amid a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine.
Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, described the incursion as a ‘large-scale provocation’ and Polish military command called it an ‘unprecedented violation’. NATO raised air policing and surveillance levels. Poland swiftly activated its air defences, with Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s, supported by German Patriot systems and an Italian Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) surveillance aircraft. The Alliance has reinforced its posture under Eastern Sentry following the incident.
The Russian incursion was followed three days later by a Russian-made Geran drone violating Romanian airspace. On 19 September, Estonia reported that three Russian MiG-31s entered its airspace over the Gulf of Finland for around 12 minutes. Moscow denied any violation, stating that the jets were transiting to Kaliningrad over international waters. Earlier this week drones closed Oslo and Copenhagen airports for several hours. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said it was the ‘most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date’ and suggested the Danish authorities were keeping an open mind as to who was behind the incident.
The incursions into NATO’s airspace starkly illustrate a dynamic of Russia’s unconventional war on Europe: the paradox of escalation. While the Kremlin keeps testing the Alliance’s resolve with drones, sabotage and disinformation, to make gains, it must keep pushing. In doing so, each probe increases the risk of a miscalculation, narrowing the room for crisis management that could turn a limited incident into a conventional war that the Kremlin wants to avoid.
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