Linggong Kong
Donald Trump and the Republican Party like to cast themselves as hawks on China.
Yet in his second term, Trump’s approach has been more bluster than bite—often retreating after tough talk and increasingly looking like a paper tiger. Beijing, by contrast, has kept its cool and, time and again, seized the initiative on major issues.
“The Art of War“, Sun Tzu’s ancient Chinese manual on strategy and leadership, has shaped thinking on conflict and power for more than two millennia. Its lessons are as relevant in today’s geopolitical rivalry as they were on the battlefield.
Seen through this lens, Trump’s China strategy reveals a series of costly missteps.
Sun Tzu’s most enduring lesson is simple: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.” Strategy starts with a clear-eyed view of both sides’ strengths and weaknesses.
Trump ignored that advice. On the campaign trail, he boasted that steep tariffs would bring Beijing to its knees. But China had already learned from the first trade war and was ready for a rematch.
He misjudged Beijing’s resolve to strike back, overlooked how deeply US businesses and consumers depended on Chinese manufacturing, and failed to see rare earths coming as a pressure point.
The gamble quickly turned against Washington. The tariffs hurt the US economy, forcing Trump to call Xi Jinping to seek a truce—a move that burnished Xi’s global image and fueled nationalism at home, giving Beijing more leverage at the table.
China’s response followed another of Sun Tzu’s maxims: “Strike where they are unprepared.” Beijing targeted US farm exports and manufacturing hubs, hitting Trump’s political base directly.
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