Gary Anderson
When it rolls out its new National Defense Strategy (NDS) and National Military Strategy (NMS), the Pentagon will reportedly de-emphasize China in favor of a more balanced global readiness posture with emphasis on the Western Hemisphere.
Emphasizing emerging global threats and renewed threats to the homeland, the pending NDS exposes a grave miscalculation by the Marine Corps when formulating Force Design 2030 in 2020.
Elbridge Colby’s intent to deter China in the NDS and, then CJCS Gen Dunford’s NMS, never intended for the Marine Corps to shed their global force in readiness capabilities in favor of an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) force in readiness.
Putting small Marine Corps units armed with obsolete, short-range missiles on sand spits in the South China Sea and China’s first island chain isn’t a deterrent to anyone, let alone a rapidly expanding Chinese military.
While I believe a war with China is unlikely, we need to be prepared for a technologically advanced multi-domain conflict that could occur across the globe, not simply the South China Sea.
The Marine Corps will need a large number of expendable drones, high volumes of munitions, and a sufficient number of ships, perhaps a hybrid amphibious fleet, to survive losses. Today, we lack those capabilities. The current administration is well aware of the evolving global threat environment and taking action to accelerate responses through investments in unmanned systems and military AI.
Although a war with China is unlikely, it is not unthinkable. China’s increasing domestic instability driven by demographic challenges, corruption along with Xi Jinping’s declining stronghold on the CCP could lead him to break from Deng Ziaoping and the proverb “hide your strength, bide your time.” A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could, therefore, be not only possible but probable in the not so distant future.
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