Pavel K. Baev
Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting from overt nuclear brinkmanship to using Russia’s nuclear energy program as a “peaceful” tool of influence, especially through technology transfers to developing countries.
Putin’s proposal to extend some terms of the U.S.–Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) projects restraint but lacks real arms control measures. This move is intended to make the Russian posture toward the West more ambiguous against the background of their ongoing war against Ukraine and gray zone tactics in Europe.
The Kremlin’s softened nuclear rhetoric, paired with recent incursions into European airspace, seeks to split opinion and undermine U.S. and European responses to Russian aggression.
Instead of following the series of aerial Russian provocations in the Baltic Sea region with nuclear brinksmanship, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a more subtle tack. At the so-called Global Atomic Forum in Moscow, Putin praised Russia’s nuclear power program and offered to share relevant technologies with “the states of the Global South and East” (President of Russia; Izvestiya, September 25). Only the leaders of Ethiopia and Myanmar were present to applaud this speech, but Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), who appears to find it important to cultivate connections with Putin, confirmed Russia’s leadership in promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy (RBC, September 26). Putin’s tone was notably different from the address to nuclear scientists at the Sarov federal research center last month, where he held a closed meeting on the Burevestnik nuclear-propelled drone, emphasizing the role of science in strengthening Russia’s strategic deterrence (President of Russia; Vedomosti, August 22; The Moscow Times, August 23).
The key element of Putin’s “peaceful” nuclear campaign is his offer to continue observing the limitations on the size of nuclear arsenals set by the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which is due to expire on February 5, 2026, for an additional year (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, September 22). Putin announced the initiative on September 22 at a special meeting of the Russian Security Council (President of Russia, September 22). State-affiliated media instantly trumpeted this announcement as a major breakthrough, so the Kremlin was disappointed by Washington’s slow response (RIAC, September 24; RIA Novosti, September 26). Russian experts have illuminated the risks of dismantling the basic structure of the arms control system, but the Kremlin’s offer would not actually resume data exchange or any other confidence-building measures (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 29). Putin’s approach may not fully account for the history of New START, which U.S. President Barack Obama signed in Prague in April 2010 and U.S. President Joe Biden extended in the first weeks of his presidency (Kommersant, September 22).
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