The Strategy Behind Trump’s Qatar Security Guarantee | Opinion

Dan Perry

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President Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war in Gaza overshadowed another seismic foreign policy decision. In an executive order signed this week, Trump extended NATO-style protections to Qatar—a tiny emirate of 300,000 citizens now enjoying a security umbrella once reserved for Europe, Japan, South Korea, and, de facto, Israel. No Arab country has ever received such status. And the question is why.

To find answers, we should consider the context. The world now awaits Hamas’ answer to the proposal announced Monday at the White House, which has the backing of both Israel and the Arab League: hand over the hostages, disarm, and surrender control of Gaza to Palestinian technocrats backed by regional states and the West. Expect Hamas to try to equivocate, buy time, soften language, and insist on impossible guarantees while preserving levers of power. The Qataris’ leverage—financial, diplomatic, and logistical—could force the choice if they choose to deploy it.

The timing of this executive order could not have been more loaded, coming just weeks after an Israeli missile strike aimed at Hamas leaders gathering in Doha, under Qatar's protection. The official story is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acted recklessly, blindsiding Washington and infuriating his indispensable patron. Trump then forced Netanyahu into an apology to the Qatari premier in a call from the White House on Monday—and then, astonishingly, rewarded Doha with a pledge that the U.S. would treat any attack on Qatar as an attack on itself. It would appear Israel had been punished and Qatar elevated.

But this account beggars belief. Are we really to believe that Israel—utterly dependent on U.S. arms, financing, and diplomatic cover—would strike inside Qatar, America’s closest Gulf partner, without notice? The strike passed through airspace that the U.S. effectively controls given its sprawling presence at Al Udeid Air Base, which the Pentagon calls its forward headquarters for Central Command. The U.S. Navy, too, relies on Qatar for part of its Gulf footprint, alongside Bahrain. To imagine Israel blindsiding Washington in this most sensitive theater strains credulity.