Israel’s air assault on Iran has focused largely on degrading the Islamic Republic’s military and would-be nuclear capabilities.
In the space of several days, Israel has totally or partially destroyed at least two nuclear sites, destroyed numerous air defense capabilities in a number of cities and killed at least 14 nuclear scientists and several senior leaders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Israeli operation has compromised how Iran can wage conventional warfare – through the use of military hardware, missiles, drones and aircraft. It has also likely curtailed any progress Iranian scientists had made in enriching uranium to a weapons-level grade, at least in the short-term.
But conventional military weapons are only one tool in Tehran’s arsenal. As a researcher who studies how Iran partners with militant groups, I know Iran still has the means to target its enemies. Despite the degradation of its military capabilities, Iran can leverage proxies, criminal organizations abroad, and cyberattacks to hit Israeli, and possibly U.S., targets.
Forward deterrence doctrine
The Islamic Republic is well suited for asymmetric warfare, or conflict between two countries that have different conventional capabilities and that is below the threshold of conventional war.
It fits a central tenet of Iran’s forward deterrence policy. In short, the doctrine holds that Iran should target its adversaries before their threat reaches the country’s borders. As Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in 2019, Iran “must not limit ourselves within our own borders. It is our duty to recognize and confront threats that lie beyond our walls.”
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