27 June 2025

Why Ukraine’s AI Drones Aren’t a Breakthrough Yet

David Kirichenko

Despite early hopes, machine vision has not yet become a game-changing feature of Ukraine’s battlefield drones. But its time will come.

The technology, a form of AI, allows drones to identify and strike targets autonomously. They can’t be jammed, aren’t restrained by the length of optical-fibre cables and don’t need continuous monitoring by operators.

But performance has been limited, according to Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. The Institute for the Study of War wrote, ‘Promises of an immediate AI … drone revolution are premature as of June 2025.’

Problems include poor camera quality, difficulty hitting moving targets and inconsistent software performance. Ukrainian army units often prefer more reliable alternatives such as optical-fibre drones.

Nonetheless, Ukrainian developers continue refining AI-controlled drones. More than 100 companies in the country are working on such guidance systems. Some are already testing drone swarms, which would overwhelm even strong defences.

‘Swarms of drones are an advanced technology that will allow the military to stay not one, but several steps ahead of the enemy,’ Herman Smetanin, Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries, said last year.

Ukrainian soldiers tell me that AI-targeting struggles in certain terrain, such as hills and forests, and works best on flat, open ground. Cost is also an obstacle.

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