Shelli Israelsen, Andrea Malji
A powerful earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, 2025, leaving thousands dead and tens of thousands more displaced—but the most profound impact from this disaster may be on the country’s already fragile political future. In a nation already torn by civil war, the disaster has become a new front in the junta’s attempt to maintain control.
Despite a temporary ceasefire declared by opposition forces, the military delayed its own response and resumed airstrikes within hours of the quake. Aid convoys have been attacked, medicine blocked, and supplies confiscated—mirroring the junta’s obstruction during Cyclone Nargis (2008) and Cyclone Mocha (2023). But unlike in 2008, the regime is more isolated and militarily weakened.
A highly coordinated resistance now controls more than 40% of Myanmar’s territory, as morale within the Tatmadaw weakens amid a growing number of defections and forced conscriptions. Internationally, China is engaging with both the junta leadership and the opposition. Meanwhile, several ASEAN neighbors are growing increasingly frustrated with the military’s failure to honor basic peace commitments. General Min Aung Hlaing’s recent rare appearance at the BIMSTEC summit reflects a bid to revive the regime’s legitimacy through disaster diplomacy. However, with shifting power dynamics and mounting global scrutiny, the junta’s old playbook may no longer be effective. In fact, we argue that it is more likely that this earthquake may lead to a further unraveling of the military’s decades-long rule over Myanmar.
This piece draws on exclusive sources and historical comparisons to examine whether the earthquake will entrench authoritarian rule — or hasten its collapse. As Myanmar approaches pivotal elections in December 2025, the regime’s response to this crisis could prove decisive. At stake is not just recovery from a natural disaster, but the possibility of a political turning point in one of the world’s most protracted conflicts.
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