Andreas Umland
Since spring 2025, Western security guarantees for Ukraine have played an important role in public debate and political planning regarding the end of the Ukraine War. The recently announced peace plan and the 28-point counterproposal to an earlier US proposal issued by the UK, France, and Germany state that Ukraine should receive “reliable” or “robust” security guarantees. These documents and the associated public debate have once again brought to the fore the question of what such guarantees might mean.
Although European and US leaders discussed security guarantees throughout 2025, the specific future commitments, measures, and coordination needs remain unclear. If these issues are not clarified in advance, there is a risk that paper promises of “security guarantees” will not be fulfilled. Inconsistent implementation of support and defense commitments would not only be dangerous for Ukraine but also further undermine an already shaken European security order and the rules-based international system.
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