The Russia-Ukraine war has begun to shape U.S. and European policies on defense industrial investment, procurement, and production and likely will have consequences for future production capacities. This report presents an analysis of U.S. and European defense industrial bases (DIBs) before the war, challenges that have been identified because of the war, and ongoing efforts to respond to those challenges and improve the DIBs. Studying U.S. and European DIBs in tandem contributes to an understanding of the shared and distinct challenges that these DIBs face, including structural issues, supply chain vulnerabilities, workforce matters, and government procurement and competition policies.
With governments aiming to improve their DIBs, RAND researchers identified potential future indicators of progress for U.S. policymakers to consider. Also, given that the Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing, researchers identified factors that may change their conclusions. These insights may contribute to future decisionmaking on transatlantic DIB cooperation. Although this research was motivated by the Russia-Ukraine war, its findings and implications extend beyond the ongoing conflict and may inform how the United States approaches potential future conflicts.
Key Findings
Transatlantic reforms have been positive but modest.
Key production lines still face challenges.
Sustained funding for U.S. and European DIB modernization and production is essential to overcome persistent constraints on production capacity but is not guaranteed.
DIB growth could create new coordination challenges.
Ongoing investments in Ukraine’s DIB offer promise for a new defense industrial power in Europe, especially if initial joint production agreements meet expectations.
DIB requirements are evolving with the changing character of war.
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