Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine pushed Polish decisionmakers to launch military modernization and expansion at a pace, scale, and direction that was unprecedented in Poland's post-communist history.
Given Russia's planned reconstitution, the extent of military aid that Warsaw provided to Ukraine, and previous problems with modernization, Poland's armed forces are at a crossroads. If Poland fails to realize its plans,
it might come out of this moment relatively weakened and vulnerable. However, if Poland is successful, it will be able to take a much larger role in ensuring the security of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) eastern flank,
thus providing the United States more flexibility to advance its interests in other parts of the world. In this report, the authors outline Poland's plans for modernization and expansion of the armed forces and provide a preliminary assessment of where U.S.
support might be most useful to maximize the return on this joint U.S.-Polish investment in deterrence and defense.
Key Findings
If modernization and expansion are successful, the Polish Armed Forces will be a top contributor to NATO's land capabilities while still being able to provide meaningful contributions in the air and maritime domains. This plan is supported across Poland's political spectrum. It is estimated that, in 2025, Poland will spend approximately 4.7 percent of its gross domestic product on national defense, a considerable share of which goes to the United States in arms contracts.
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