Darya Dolzikova
The outlines of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program since last Friday have been extensively reported and mulled over. While considerable uncertainties remain over the precise extent of the damage at Iran’s key nuclear sites, there’s a bigger question: What are the implications for Iran’s strategic calculus on the future and role of its nuclear program?
The Israeli strikes have had a meaningful impact on rolling back Iran’s nuclear expertise and technical capabilities. But they have probably had the opposite effect on Iran’s threat perception and, therefore, its resolve to advance and potentially weaponize its program.
On Monday, June 17, three days after the first Israeli aerial strikes on Iran, the Iranian parliament introduced a bill that—if passed—could see Iran withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT. Tehran has repeatedly threatened in the past to withdraw from the treaty, which underpins the global non-proliferation regime. However, the scale of the current Israeli attack has made that threat—and the subsequent weaponization of Iran’s nuclear program—eminently credible. Notably, the Iranian ambassadors to the United Kingdom and France have reiterated Iran’s continued commitment to the NPT.
Iran probably hopes that threatening withdrawal—or even moving toward NPT withdrawal—can help it generate leverage in the current escalation cycle. But that would be an exceptionally dangerous bet to make and could be counter to Tehran’s interest.
Stronger resolve. Israel’s military operation of the last few days has already degraded Iran’s technical capabilities, especially the country’s ability to produce enriched uranium. However, on a strategic level, the scale of Israel’s attacks carried out against multiple targets in Iran, including in the capital of Tehran, may convince Iranians that acquiring a nuclear weapon capability is the only way to deter similar aggression in the future.
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