DeLaine Mayer
The next war may begin without a sound—in orbit, far above the battlefield. As satellite proximity operations, grappling technologies, and AI-enabled space systems proliferate, space is no longer just a technical domain; it is a new theater of power. Orbital assets are fast becoming the front line of great power confrontation, yet international norms and deterrence doctrines have not caught up, creating a world that is dangerously unprepared for the political and military consequences of space-based first strikes.
In March 2025, US Space Force General Michael A. Guetlein, the vice chief of space operations, revealed that American systems had observed “five different objects in space maneuvering in and out and around each other in synchronicity and in control,” a scenario he called “dogfighting in space.” China, along with the United States and other major space powers, is rapidly developing counterspace capabilities. These aren’t science-fiction weapons; they reflect a strategic shift. Satellites are the nervous system of modern warfare, vital for intelligence, navigation, and communication. Disabling an adversary’s satellites can blind its battlefield or situational awareness and create a powerful advantage in the early stages of conflict.
Unlike traditional warfare, there is no clear legal framework for what constitutes aggression in space. Satellite interference can be framed as a malfunction, a test, or a provocation, making it an ideal gray-zone tactic. The first move in the next major conflict may not come as a missile strike or cyberattack, but as a silent,
deniable maneuver in orbit that signals war before the world even realizes it has begun, just like the February 2022 cyberattack on Viasat in the hours before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
No comments:
Post a Comment