12 June 2025

Measuring the Reach of Russia’s Propaganda in the Russia-Ukraine War


Composite image by Sara Herbst/RAND from Adobe Stock images by Pattadis, deagreez, supamas, elen31, and Ammak.

On February 24, 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, he claimed that Ukraine was led by “far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis” and that the purpose of Russia’s invasion was to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.” Russia’s propagandists have sought to weaponize extremist ideologies and anti-Ukrainian ethno-national animus to mobilize domestic and international audiences.

The concern that Russia's extremist narratives could gain popularity with international audiences and even catalyze violent extremism against groups that these narratives target is warranted—but should not be overstated. Although Russian propaganda does spread far and wide, recent research suggests that not all of it is as successful as it might seem.
RAND Researchers Examined Four Hate-Filled Narratives

A recent RAND study examined how some of Russia’s most extremist and most hate-filled narratives have spread on social-media platforms, such as X and Telegram. It identified four such narratives and looked at which audiences these narratives reach and who is spreading them. Researchers reviewed statements from Russian officials, state media, and social media to identify Russian-originating narratives that echo violent extremist tropes to target and denigrate Ukrainians. The four narratives are summarized in Table 1.

No comments: