Nigel Green
A high-stakes showdown is unfolding this week in London—far from the manufacturing plants of Shenzhen or the trading floors of Wall Street, yet central to the global economic order.
Senior US and Chinese officials will hold a second day of talks today (Tuesday) aimed at de-escalating the most consequential economic rivalry of our time.
After Monday’s first day of talks, US President Donald Trump said, “We are doing well with China. China’s not easy…I’m only getting good reports.” China is negotiating for looser US tech controls while the US wants China to ease limits on rare earth mineral exports.
But for investors watching from Singapore to Silicon Valley, these meetings aren’t just about tariffs. They’re about who writes the rules of the 21st-century global economy.
Both sides are seeking to revive the Geneva framework established last month—an agreement that temporarily eased a volatile tariff standoff by rolling back US import duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and slashing Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10%.
The compromise was a ceasefire, not a peace treaty. Since then, fiery accusations of non-compliance have resumed.
Washington says Beijing is dragging its feet on critical mineral exports. Beijing accuses the US of doubling down on tech restrictions, particularly on semiconductors and AI.
The talks in London are significant because the stakes have never been higher. China and the US are no longer just competing powers—they are operating two fundamentally divergent systems, each trying to shape the global economic architecture in its own image.
This is a full-spectrum competition that spans data flows, digital currencies, energy policy, national security, and ideology. Investors ignore this at their peril.
To understand the gravity of this week’s negotiations, you have to look beyond the tariff tables and see the wider trajectory.
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