Mark Voyger, and Yuliya Shtaltovna
In global affairs, perception can be more dangerous than reality, especially when the stakes involve war, deterrence, and the balance of power. President Donald Trump’s remarks about the Russian war in Ukraine as “senseless,” and “madness” went viral across social media platforms. True enough, the number and level of cruelty of war crimes the Russian army commits are beyond comprehension.
This war is not a random shuffle of tragic events. It is a litmus test for twenty-first-century deterrence—a high-stakes hand in the long-running, multidimensional game of geopolitical poker, where decisionmaking unfolds under conditions of incomplete information.
Even professional players lack full knowledge of the game’s structure or other players’ payoffs, creating uncertainty and forcing strategic choices based on belief systems and probabilities. At the poker table, calling a situation “senseless” often means losing track of the knowns—and losing a strategic edge. The audacious brilliance of the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airbases last week demonstrates that Ukraine can and should win the war.
If Ukraine plays this hand right, the outcome can reinforce a rules-based order and reassert American strategic leadership. Ukraine’s daring drone attacks changed twenty-first-century warfare for the foreseeable future by redefining both deterrence and offensive operations. However, if the United States folds too early, the table—and the entire game—may never look the same again.
No comments:
Post a Comment