Chels Michta
The recent decision taken at The Hague by European NATO allies to increase defense spending to 5% by 2035 has been justly celebrated as a step in the right direction. And though one can be skeptical whether the decade-long timeline will survive the test of political will,
it nonetheless marked the recognition that rearmament is no longer a theoretical conversation while bringing the alliance closer to operationalizing NATO’s new regional plans.
The final communique — remarkably brief by past NATO standards — conveyed a sense of determination and purpose, giving the US administration and European governments a justifiable reason to call the summit a success.
While the meeting focused on Russia and European security, the new spending commitments cannot be considered separately from other theaters. The US and its European allies must now find a way to broaden the conversation so that European rearmament dovetails into the larger geostrategic environment the West faces.
For although all eyes were on the Atlantic theater at The Hague, democracies face a challenge to their security that is truly global in nature, as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea work jointly to dismantle the security system America and its allies have built.
The difference between preserving a modicum of systemic stability, and hence peace, and an all-out military confrontation will likely come down to four key regions: Europe, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, and the Indo-Pacific.
Two of these theaters have already been engulfed in war, while the remaining two are increasingly areas of concern, both due to North Korea’s aggressive nuclear and missile program and China’s massive military buildup, especially the expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, which has surpassed the US Navy in fleet size.
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