Seth J. Frantzman
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continue to expand operations in Gaza. On July 20, the IDF told Gazans to evacuate an area near the coastal town of Deir al-Balah. This town was built around a refugee camp established for Palestinians who fled Israel in 1948. Hamas continues to rule Deir al-Balah,
despite more than 650 days of war in which the IDF has operated in around 70 percent of Gaza. The IDF’s decision to focus on Deir al-Balah represents a new attempt to pressure Hamas into a ceasefire deal. Hamas and Israel have not been able to agree to a deal in weeks of talks in July.
Israel’s IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir is trying to wage a complex war without a clear political strategy from above. There is no clear way to replace Hamas governance in the Strip. The Israeli government opposes the Palestinian Authority’s rule over Gaza from the West Bank. As such,
a power vacuum is likely to occur. In Gaza, the IDF has asked civilians to leave areas where the IDF is operating. This has resulted in relocating them all to areas under Hamas control. This area is shrinking now, as Hamas clings to a small number of places on the coast, such as Deir al-Balah.
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has dragged on for 21 months. The war began with a brutal Hamas attack on Israel in which more than 1,200 people were massacred and 251 taken hostage. Today, fifty hostages remain in Gaza. For Israel’s generals, the official goal of the war is to return the hostages. How that will happen is not clear. In general, the IDF has only been able to free a handful of hostages through special forces raids.
Most hostages have returned in two deals: one in January 2025 and one in November 2023. The United States has supported a hostage deal, and Qatar and Egypt have tried to mediate. Qatar hosts Hamas political leaders, allowing it to host talks while Hamas is in close proximity. With Hamas losing many of its commanders in Gaza, it appears that Hamas political leaders in Qatar hold most of the sway over future decisions.
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