Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine is one piece of a broader campaign to restore a sphere of influence in post-Soviet Eurasia. The 2022 invasion came as a shock to many of Russia’s neighbors in eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, confirming their fears that Russia remained a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their countries. Yet because the war in Ukraine has been a massive drain on Russian attention and resources, it has also presented many of these countries with an opportunity. Taking advantage of Moscow’s distraction, they have enhanced their cooperation with one another, cultivated and deepened partnerships outside the region, and loosened some of the bonds tying them to their former imperial hegemon.
Although many governments in the Eurasian interior have been cautious about criticizing the Russian invasion, they are creating facts on the ground that reinforce their sovereignty and independence—a key objective of U.S. policy in the region since the 1990s. As the Russian military’s demand for weapons has left Moscow unable to fulfill promised exports, countries such as Armenia are turning to other suppliers in Europe and India; other regional states are purchasing weapons from Turkey and even China.
And as Russia has withdrawn forces and equipment from its military bases in the Caucasus and Central Asia to redeploy them to Ukraine, countries in both places are resolving conflicts that Russia has long exploited for its own benefit. Improved cooperation within the wider region is also creating new opportunities to enhance trade connectivity and build alternatives to transit through Russia. By reducing the dependency that once defined their relationship with their former hegemon, countries in the region have become increasingly capable of engaging Russia (and other powers) on favorable terms.
And yet if history is any guide, Moscow could go to extreme lengths to preserve its regional dominion. In 2014, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia annexed Crimea and intervened in the Donbas region; earlier, in 2008, it invaded Georgia. Today, the Kremlin maintains a proprietary view of not only Ukraine but also many other countries. Ukraine and Belarus remain Moscow’s top priorities, but the Kremlin also aspires to a kind of suzerainty over Armenia, Azerbaijan.
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