Suyash Desai Harsh V. Pant
The 2024 Taiwan presidential elections marked a historic third consecutive win for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—the first time a party has achieved such a feat since the direct presidential elections began in 1996.[1] DPP’s presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te,[a] secured 40.1 percent of the popular vote in a three-party race, followed by Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou Yu-ih, who secured 33.5 percent of the votes, and Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je, who garnered 26.5 percent.[2]
The victory was tarnished by the split verdict in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, with the KMT, DPP, and TPP winning 52, 51, and eight seats, respectively. This fragmented outcome marks a new era of a divided government in Taiwan, with the ruling party for the first time in over 16 years not controlling the majority in the national parliament.
Therefore, while Lai Ching-te’s election indicates continuity on the most crucial policy issues, the joint opposition of the KMT and the TPP has increased partisan gridlock, slowing governance and policymaking.[3] The two blocs differ on multiple important issues, notably the “1992 Consensus”, an agreement between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the KMT asserting that only one China exists.[4] Interpretations vary within Taiwan: the DPP rejects “the 1992 Consensus”, arguing it fails to consider the Taiwanese aspirations since it predates the island’s democratisation.[5] However, as scholars Hass, Glaser, and Bush wrote in a 2023 analysis, former President Tsai Ing-wen adopted a pragmatic, moderate stance—without explicitly endorsing “the 1992 Consensus”—due to domestic political constraints she faced in the past eight years.[6]
From his statements in the run-up to the presidential elections, and over one year into governance, President Lai appears poised to continue with Tsai’s pragmatic approach to cross-strait relations.[7] However, he has had a pro-independence reputation, with the latest instances in July and August 2023, when he clarified that Taiwan is not a part of the People’s Republic of China.[8] He maintained a similar line of thought in 2024 and 2025, as seen in his speeches.[b],[9]
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