Declan Penrose
Envisioning the Future of Nuclear Security, by BASIC Policy Fellow Declan Penrose, is the culmination of work started by BASIC’s Emerging Voices Network (EVN) in 2023, when foresight methodologies were first used to envisage multiple possible nuclear weapons futures during the launch of our “Desiloing Existential Threats II” policy cycle.
The aim of the The Emerging Voices Future of Nuclear Security report is to envisage multiple possible future scenarios and use them to develop robust policy recommendations. The report has been funded by a grant awarded to BASIC Policy Fellow Declan as part of his Horizon 2045 Nuclear Futures Fellowship.
The Nuclear Futures Fellowship is a joint initiative between the Ploughshares Fund and Horizon 2045. The fellowship was awarded to a small group of young leaders who want to build the adaptive leadership practices, tools, and relationships necessary to help the nuclear field progress peacefully in a constantly changing environment. It is an opportunity to learn new skills and, most crucially, a field-building exercise.
The fellowship included a grant to conduct a Capstone Project, where fellows could implement the foresight methodologies they had developed through the fellowship. For his Capstone Project, Declan aimed to conduct collaborative research with BASIC’s EVN network and engage with other early-career experts working for networks that specialise in various security domains, including climate, bio, and finance. It was an ambitious two-phase project that implemented several foresight tools to envisage the future of nuclear security.
Part of the project involved the creation of a systems map that visualises the key drivers of future nuclear security, as seen by the next generation of security experts. They were provided with a “scanning form” − circulated to many early career security networks − that asked them what are the things which they believed are the most important in terms of shaping the future of nuclear security in seven domains. They were then asked to name which drivers they deemed to be most important and why they are so significant. Their answers were converted into a systems map using the Kumu programme, compiled with expert guidance from consultant Chris Spedding, founder of Loop Works.
No comments:
Post a Comment