12 August 2025

Myanmar’s Election Has China’s Fingerprints All Over It

 

Myanmar’s Election Has China’s Fingerprints All Over It

The planned December vote won’t be democratic, but it could dislodge a key junta leader from power.

 Andrew Nachemson

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Four years after he plunged the country into chaos with his 2021 coup, Myanmar’s commander in chief, Min Aung Hlaing, handed power over to an interim government—led by himself.


Observers do not expect the cosmetic makeover that Min Aung Hlaing announced on July 31 to result in any substantive policy changes for a military regime that has committed severe repression and human rights atrocities. Instead, the announcement signals that preparations are underway for an election Min Aung Hlaing has been promising to hold ever since he jailed Myanmar’s civilian leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, in February 2021.


Four years after he plunged the country into chaos with his 2021 coup, Myanmar’s commander in chief, Min Aung Hlaing, handed power over to an interim government—led by himself.


Observers do not expect the cosmetic makeover that Min Aung Hlaing announced on July 31 to result in any substantive policy changes for a military regime that has committed severe repression and human rights atrocities. Instead, the announcement signals that preparations are underway for an election Min Aung Hlaing has been promising to hold ever since he jailed Myanmar’s civilian leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, in February 2021.


Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is barred from competing in the election, which is scheduled for December. That’s enough to render the entire operation a sham: The NLD won around 60 percent of the popular vote in the 2015 and 2020 elections. The military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is likely to prevail instead.


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