Ava Grainger-Williams
In January 2025, a pro-ISIS gunman opened fire at a Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans, sparking renewed headlines about an ISIS “resurgence.” While the group’s territorial caliphate collapsed years ago, ISIS itself did not. Instead, it adapted, splintering into decentralized offshoots that embedded themselves across regions from the Sahel to South Asia. This evolving threat demands adaptive responses from governments worldwide, not just conventional counterterrorism organs. The tools that helped dismantle the caliphate are no longer sufficient. Drone strikes, targeted killings, and military campaigns are ill-suited to confront a decentralized network sustained by ideology. These approaches can do little to disrupt the digital ecosystems, transnational links, and local grievances that continue to fuel radicalization.
Instead, a long-term approach focused on building local resilience is necessary. This entails support for regional counterinsurgency efforts, enhanced intelligence sharing, and investments in initiatives that strengthen governance and legitimacy in vulnerable areas. Emerging cooperation between Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq offers a promising model of what pragmatic, regionally driven coordination can look like. This approach is needed most urgently in Africa, where the Islamic State has found the space to regroup and expand. ISIS affiliates have entrenched themselves in fragile states and conflict zones, exploiting porous borders and weak governance.
In Nigeria, ISIS-West Africa Province (ISWAP) has grown increasingly sophisticated, using roadside bombs and ambushes to target military convoys in the Borno and Adamawa states. These attacks have killed dozens since early 2025. Further south, in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, ISIS-linked militants such as the ADF have escalated their violence: massacring villagers, burning homes, and attacking schools.
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