Michael Rubin
Fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah carried out a training exercise in Aaramta village in the Jezzine District, southern Lebanon, on Sunday, May 21, 2023. The show of force came ahead of “Liberation Day,” the annual celebration of the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon on May 25, 2000, and in the wake of a recent escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Key Points and Summary – Hezbollah isn’t done. Despite leadership losses, its financing—diaspora-linked laundering and new backing from Turkey to offset Iran—remains resilient.
-Unless President Joseph Aoun disarms Hezbollah by year’s end, Lebanon could face a renewed insurgency: IEDs on LAF vehicles, sniper terror, and voter intimidation in the south.
Hezbollah Isn’t Finished: Why Lebanon Must Prep for Insurgency
In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to uproot Palestinian terror cells that had established themselves in the south of the country. Initially, Lebanese—both Christians and Shi’a—welcomed the Israelis with open arms; that honeymoon soon turned into a nightmare as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began training Lebanese Shi’a in guerilla tactics and bomb-making.
After a brief intra-Shi’a civil war in the early 1980s, Hezbollah consolidated control over Shi’i representation; anyone who challenged the group’s monopoly or called out their corruption and treason risked their lives.
Hezbollah played diplomats and American analysts in the intelligence community and think tank community for fools by reinventing themselves as a face of Lebanese nationalism. In reality, they were always a force that undercut Lebanese sovereignty for the sake of paymasters and sponsors more than 1,000 miles away.
Hezbollah restarted its war with Israel on October 8, 2023 as it sought to share Hamas’ glory and take advantage of Israel’s distraction. For the Iranian proxy group, it would be a fatal mistake.
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